Keegan Smith vs Fajing Sun
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Keegan Smith, giving them a 55% chance to win against Fajing Sun (45%). Keegan Smith leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Smith is 4-6 in their last 10, Sun 4-6. At +140, the odds imply 42% for Fajing Sun, below the model's 45%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Keegan Smith a 55% favorite. At +140 the sportsbook implies 42% for Fajing Sun, 3 points below the model's 45%.
Model minus book: -10 pts
Model minus book: +3 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Fajing Sun at +140 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Keegan Smith | Fajing Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6636 | 6589 |
| Tour rank | ATP #301 | ATP #371 |
| Last 10 matches | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Last 30 days | 5-4 | 3-3 |
| Current streak | 2 Losses | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 59-33 | 32-32 |
| UTR | 14.4 | 14.16 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1426 | 1460 |
| Best surface | Hard | Hard |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Keegan Smith leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Keegan Smith | 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 | China Guangzhou |
Recent form
Keegan Smith, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Yu Hsiou Hsu | L | 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 |
| 23.10.2026 | Tristan Schoolkate | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 22.10.2026 | Fajing Sun | W | 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 |
| 20.10.2026 | Max Purcell | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Martin Landaluce | L | 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Martin Landaluce | L | 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Vit Kopriva | W | 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 13.10.2026 | Stefanos Sakellaridis | W | 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 06.10.2026 | Hiroki Moriya | L | 3-6, 7-6, 6-3 |
| 02.10.2026 | Mitchell Krueger | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
Fajing Sun, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Petr Bar Biryukov | L | 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 27.10.2026 | Hayato Matsuoka | W | 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
| 22.10.2026 | Keegan Smith | L | 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 |
| 20.10.2026 | Qian Sun | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 13.10.2026 | Jie Cui | L | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 09.10.2026 | Alibek Kachmazov | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 08.10.2026 | Kasidit Samrej | W | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 06.10.2026 | Aoran Wang | W | 6-3, 1-0 |
| 29.09.2026 | Bernard Tomic | L | 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 24.09.2026 | Roman Safiullin | L | 6-2, 6-0 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Keegan Smith | Fajing Sun |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bolt | 1-1 W 6-4, 6-4, L 7-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-7, 6-3, 6-3 |
| Alexis Galarneau | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-5, 3-6, 7-5 |
| Hayato Matsuoka | 1-0 W 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 |
2-1 W 4-6, 6-3, 7-5, L 7-5, 7-5, W 6-2, 2-6, 6-2 |
| Li Tu | 0-1 L 3-6, 7-5, 7-6 |
1-0 W 5-7, 6-4, 7-5 |
| Ognjen Milic | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-1 |
| Pavel Kotov | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Philip Sekulic | 1-0 W 6-2, 7-5 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-3 |
| Rio Noguchi | 1-0 W 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 |
0-1 L 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 |
| Tai Sach | 0-1 L 1-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-1 |
| Tristan Schoolkate | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-2 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-27: ATP Guangzhou (China), model gave Keegan Smith 55% at -192
- 2026-10-26: ATP Guangzhou (China), model gave Keegan Smith 55% at -192
- 2026-10-25: ATP Guangzhou (China), model gave Keegan Smith 55% at -192
- 2026-10-24: ATP Guangzhou (China), model gave Keegan Smith 55% at -192
- 2026-10-23: ATP Guangzhou (China), model gave Keegan Smith 55% at -192
- 2026-10-22: ATP Guangzhou (China), model gave Keegan Smith 55% at -192
- 2026-10-21: ATP Guangzhou (China), model gave Keegan Smith 55% at -192
Keegan Smith vs Fajing Sun: quick answers
Who will win Keegan Smith vs Fajing Sun?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Keegan Smith, giving them a 55% chance to win against Fajing Sun (45%).
What is the head-to-head record between Keegan Smith and Fajing Sun?
Keegan Smith leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 22, 2026, won by Keegan Smith 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 at China Guangzhou.
Who is in better form, Keegan Smith or Fajing Sun?
Keegan Smith is 4-6 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Losses). Fajing Sun is 4-6 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Keegan Smith and Fajing Sun?
Keegan Smith is rated 6636 (ATP #301) and Fajing Sun is rated 6589 (ATP #371). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Keegan Smith vs Fajing Sun?
Keegan Smith is priced at -192 and Fajing Sun at +140, which implies a 66% and 42% chance to win. The model rates Fajing Sun 3 points higher than the odds do (45% vs 42%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.