Hikaru Sato vs Erika Sema
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Erika Sema, giving them a 59% chance to win against Hikaru Sato (41%). Hikaru Sato leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Sato is 8-2 in their last 10, Sema 5-5. At +283, the odds imply 26% for Erika Sema, below the model's 59%.
Prediction
The model makes Erika Sema a 59% favorite. At +283 the sportsbook implies 26% for Erika Sema, 33 points below the model's 59%.
Model minus book: -42 pts
Model minus book: +33 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Erika Sema at +283 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Hikaru Sato | Erika Sema | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6528 | 6438 |
| Tour rank | WTA #501 | WTA #654 |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 8-1 | 3-1 |
| Current streak | 7 Wins | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 48-28 | 26-28 |
| UTR | 11.01 | 10.77 |
Head to head
Hikaru Sato leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.05.2026 | Hikaru Sato | 7-6, 6-4 | Japan Takasaki |
| 09.03.2026 | Hikaru Sato | 6-3, 6-4 | Japan Kyoto |
Recent form
Hikaru Sato, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Renee Alame | W | 6-1, 1-6, 6-2 |
| 28.10.2026 | Merel Hoedt | W | 6-1, 7-6 |
| 25.10.2026 | I Wen Wan | W | 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 24.10.2026 | Mio Mushika | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 23.10.2026 | Naiktha Bains | W | 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 22.10.2026 | Nanari Katsumi | W | 6-1, 7-5 |
| 21.10.2026 | Shrivalli Rashmikaa Bhamidipaty | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 08.10.2026 | Mutsumi Uemura | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 07.10.2026 | Nana Onozawa | W | 6-0, 6-2 |
| 02.10.2026 | Naho Sato | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
Erika Sema, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Eva Lopez | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 27.10.2026 | Miho Kuramochi | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 22.10.2026 | Mio Mushika | L | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 21.10.2026 | Jizelle Sibai | W | 6-1, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 06.09.2026 | Vaishnavi Adkar | L | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 30.08.2026 | Jia Jing Lu | L | 7-6, 4-6, 6-4 |
| 06.08.2026 | Eunhye Lee | L | 6-2, 1-6, 6-0 |
| 04.08.2026 | Maria Fernanda Navarro Oliva | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 30.07.2026 | Sara Saito | L | 3-6, 6-2, 6-4 |
| 29.07.2026 | Mckenna Schaefbauer | W | 6-2, 7-6 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Hikaru Sato | Erika Sema |
|---|---|---|
| Amy Stevens | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-1 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
| Ena Koike | 1-0 W 3-6, 6-2, 6-4 |
0-2 L 6-3, 3-6, 7-5, L 6-0, 6-3 |
| Fangran Tian | 1-0 W 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 3-6, 6-2, 6-1 |
| Jizelle Sibai | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-1, 4-6, 7-6 |
| Kisa Yoshioka | 1-0 W 6-3, 1-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-1, 4-6, 6-4 |
| Meng Yi Chen | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-1 |
| Miho Kuramochi | 1-0 W 3-6, 7-6, 4-2 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
| Mio Mushika | 3-0 W 6-2, 6-1, W 6-4, 6-1, W 1-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-2 |
| Mutsumi Uemura | 1-1 L 6-4, 6-4, W 7-6, 6-1 |
0-1 L 5-7, 6-4, 10-8 |
| Yingqun Sun | 1-0 W 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-1 |
| Yuka Hosoki | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-1 |
1-0 W 3-6, 6-0, 6-3 |
| Yuno Kitahara | 2-0 W 6-1, 6-4, W 6-4, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-1, 7-5 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-11-01: WTA Sydney (XI) I (Australia), model gave Hikaru Sato 41% at -476
- 2026-10-31: WTA Sydney (XI) I (Australia), model gave Hikaru Sato 41% at -476
- 2026-10-30: WTA Sydney (XI) I (Australia), model gave Hikaru Sato 41% at -476
Hikaru Sato vs Erika Sema: quick answers
Who will win Hikaru Sato vs Erika Sema?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Erika Sema, giving them a 59% chance to win against Hikaru Sato (41%).
What is the head-to-head record between Hikaru Sato and Erika Sema?
Hikaru Sato leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on May 19, 2026, won by Hikaru Sato 7-6, 6-4 at Japan Takasaki.
Who is in better form, Hikaru Sato or Erika Sema?
Hikaru Sato is 8-2 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 7 Wins). Erika Sema is 5-5 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Hikaru Sato and Erika Sema?
Hikaru Sato is rated 6528 (WTA #501) and Erika Sema is rated 6438 (WTA #654). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Hikaru Sato vs Erika Sema?
Hikaru Sato is priced at -476 and Erika Sema at +283, which implies a 83% and 26% chance to win. The model rates Erika Sema 33 points higher than the odds do (59% vs 26%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.