Leylah Fernandez vs Elise Mertens
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Leylah Fernandez, giving them a 51% chance to win against Elise Mertens (49%). Leylah Fernandez leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Fernandez is 8-2 in their last 10, Mertens 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Leylah Fernandez a 51% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: +1 pts
Model minus book: -6 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Leylah Fernandez at +100 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Leylah Fernandez | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 7109 | 7115 |
| Tour rank | WTA #22 | WTA #19 |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 7-3 | 5-3 |
| Current streak | 2 Wins | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 30-26 | 34-24 |
| UTR | 12.52 | 12.65 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1853 | 1921 |
| Best surface | Hard | Grass |
| Worst surface | Clay | Hard |
Head to head
Leylah Fernandez leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | 6-2, 7-6 | Japan Tokyo |
| 19.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 | China Ningbo |
Recent form
Leylah Fernandez, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Elise Mertens | W | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Himeno Sakatsume | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 25.10.2026 | Elena Rybakina | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 24.10.2026 | Marie Bouzkova | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 23.10.2026 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | W | 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 |
| 21.10.2026 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | W | 7-5, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 19.10.2026 | Elise Mertens | W | 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
| 15.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | L | 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Han Shi | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 12.10.2026 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
Elise Mertens, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | L | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 26.10.2026 | Moyuka Uchijima | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 19.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | L | 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
| 13.10.2026 | Daria Snigur | L | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 10.10.2026 | Qinwen Zheng | L | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 09.10.2026 | Iga Swiatek | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 07.10.2026 | Coco Gauff | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 05.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | W | 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 03.10.2026 | Katie Volynets | W | 6-0, 4-6, 7-5 |
| 25.09.2026 | Maja Chwalinska | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Leylah Fernandez | Elise Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Eala | 1-1 L 6-2, 7-6, W 6-1, 6-4 |
2-0 W 6-3, 6-3, W 6-2, 6-1 |
| Elena Rybakina | 0-2 L 6-2, 6-2, L 6-7, 6-4, 7-6 |
1-1 W 7-6, 6-1, L 6-1, 6-3 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | 0-1 L 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | 1-0 W 5-7, 7-5, 6-3 |
1-0 W 1-6, 6-3, 6-0 |
| Maja Chwalinska | 1-0 W 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
0-2 L 6-2, 6-2, L 6-4, 6-0 |
| Marie Bouzkova | 1-0 W 6-3, 7-5 |
2-0 W 6-4, 6-4, W 6-2, 6-2 |
| Mccartney Kessler | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
0-1 L 7-6, 2-6, 3-3 |
| Mirra Andreeva | 2-1 W 6-2, 7-5, W 6-1, 6-4, L 7-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-3 |
| Naomi Osaka | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
0-3 L 6-3, 3-6, 7-5, L 6-1, 6-2, L 6-3, 6-3 |
| Victoria Mboko | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-29: WTA Tokyo (Pan Pacific Open) (Japan), model gave Leylah Fernandez 51% at +100
- 2026-10-21: WTA Ningbo (IX) (China), model gave Leylah Fernandez 51% at -143
- 2026-10-19: WTA Ningbo (IX) (China), model gave Elise Mertens 55% at -137
- 2026-10-18: WTA Ningbo (IX) (China), model gave Elise Mertens 55% at -137
Leylah Fernandez vs Elise Mertens: quick answers
Who will win Leylah Fernandez vs Elise Mertens?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Leylah Fernandez, giving them a 51% chance to win against Elise Mertens (49%).
What is the head-to-head record between Leylah Fernandez and Elise Mertens?
Leylah Fernandez leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 29, 2026, won by Leylah Fernandez 6-2, 7-6 at Japan Tokyo.
Who is in better form, Leylah Fernandez or Elise Mertens?
Leylah Fernandez is 8-2 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Elise Mertens is 5-5 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Leylah Fernandez and Elise Mertens?
Leylah Fernandez is rated 7109 (WTA #22) and Elise Mertens is rated 7115 (WTA #19). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Leylah Fernandez vs Elise Mertens?
Leylah Fernandez is priced at +100 and Elise Mertens at -120, which implies a 50% and 55% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.