Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek
Updated
Elise Mertens beat Iga Swiatek 7-6, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Iga Swiatek at 71%. Elise Mertens leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Mertens is 5-5 in their last 10, Swiatek 8-2.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Iga Swiatek a 71% favorite. At +347 the sportsbook implies 22% for Elise Mertens, 7 points below the model's 29%.
Model minus book: +7 pts
Model minus book: -12 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Elise Mertens at +347 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Elise Mertens | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 7115 | 7177 |
| Tour rank | WTA #19 | WTA #1 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 8-2 |
| Last 30 days | 4-1 | 3-0 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 34-24 | 45-17 |
| UTR | 12.65 | 12.89 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1912 | 2104 |
| Best surface | Clay | Clay |
| Worst surface | Hard | Hard |
Head to head
Elise Mertens leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09.10.2026 | Elise Mertens | 7-6, 6-3 | China Peking |
Recent form
Elise Mertens, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | L | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 26.10.2026 | Moyuka Uchijima | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 19.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | L | 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
| 13.10.2026 | Daria Snigur | L | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 10.10.2026 | Qinwen Zheng | L | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 09.10.2026 | Iga Swiatek | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 07.10.2026 | Coco Gauff | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 05.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | W | 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 03.10.2026 | Katie Volynets | W | 6-0, 4-6, 7-5 |
| 25.09.2026 | Maja Chwalinska | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
Iga Swiatek, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10.2026 | Maja Chwalinska | L | 7-5, 6-1 |
| 16.10.2026 | Ann Li | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 15.10.2026 | Ashlyn Krueger | W | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Magdalena Frech | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 09.10.2026 | Elise Mertens | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 07.10.2026 | Iva Jovic | W | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 05.10.2026 | Donna Vekic | W | 4-6, 7-6, 6-2 |
| 03.10.2026 | Xinyu Gao | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 07.9.2026 | Qinwen Zheng | L | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 05.09.2026 | Marie Bouzkova | W | 7-6, 7-6 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Elise Mertens | Iga Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Eala | 2-0 W 6-3, 6-3, W 6-2, 6-1 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-2 |
| Belinda Bencic | 0-2 L 6-2, 6-3, L 6-3, 4-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 3-6, 6-0, 6-3 |
| Coco Gauff | 1-1 W 6-3, 6-3, L 2-6, 7-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
| Daria Kasatkina | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-0 |
1-0 W 5-7, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Daria Snigur | 0-1 L 6-4, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-1, 6-2 |
| Diane Parry | 0-2 L 6-4, 0-6, 6-3, L 2-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
| Elena Rybakina | 1-1 W 7-6, 6-1, L 6-1, 6-3 |
3-1 W 4-1, W 6-2, 6-3, L 7-5, 6-1, W 6-3, 6-3 |
| Emma Navarro | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-2 |
0-1 L 7-5, 2-6, 6-3 |
| Karolina Muchova | 0-1 L 1-6, 6-3, 6-0 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-0 |
| Karolina Pliskova | 0-1 L 7-5, 2-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-1, 6-3 |
| Laura Siegemund | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-3 |
| Maja Chwalinska | 0-2 L 6-2, 6-2, L 6-4, 6-0 |
0-1 L 7-5, 6-1 |
| Marie Bouzkova | 2-0 W 6-4, 6-4, W 6-2, 6-2 |
2-0 W 7-6, 7-6, W 6-2, 6-3 |
| Mirra Andreeva | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-3 |
0-1 L 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Naomi Osaka | 0-3 L 6-3, 3-6, 7-5, L 6-1, 6-2, L 6-3, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-1 |
| Qinwen Zheng | 0-1 L 7-5, 6-2 |
0-1 L 7-5, 6-3 |
Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek: quick answers
Who won Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek?
Elise Mertens beat Iga Swiatek 7-6, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Iga Swiatek at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elise Mertens and Iga Swiatek?
Elise Mertens leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 9, 2026, won by Elise Mertens 7-6, 6-3 at China Peking.
Who is in better form, Elise Mertens or Iga Swiatek?
Elise Mertens is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Iga Swiatek is 8-2 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Elise Mertens and Iga Swiatek?
Elise Mertens is rated 7115 (WTA #19) and Iga Swiatek is rated 7177 (WTA #1). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek?
Elise Mertens is priced at +347 and Iga Swiatek at -476, which implies a 22% and 83% chance to win. The model rates Elise Mertens 7 points higher than the odds do (29% vs 22%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.