Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci
Updated
Mattia Bellucci beat Elias Ymer 6-2, 6-1, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Mattia Bellucci leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Ymer is 2-8 in their last 10, Bellucci 8-2.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Mattia Bellucci a 87% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -7 pts
Model minus book: -1 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Mattia Bellucci at -714 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Elias Ymer | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6683 | 6864 |
| Tour rank | ATP #245 | ATP #70 |
| Last 10 matches | 2-8 | 8-2 |
| Last 30 days | 3-4 | 8-3 |
| Current streak | 8 Losses | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 22-31 | 42-29 |
| UTR | 14.26 | 15.6 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1505 | 1714 |
| Best surface | Grass | Grass |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Mattia Bellucci leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.2026 | Mattia Bellucci | 6-2, 6-1 | China Jinan |
| 05.10.2026 | Mattia Bellucci | 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 | China Shangai - Masters |
Recent form
Elias Ymer, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Yi Zhou | L | 1-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 19.10.2026 | James Mccabe | L | 6-0, 6-7, 7-6 |
| 13.10.2026 | Mattia Bellucci | L | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 05.10.2026 | Mattia Bellucci | L | 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 |
| 01.10.2026 | Federico Cina | L | 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 30.09.2026 | Terence Atmane | L | 4-6, 7-5, 5-5 |
| 22.09.2026 | Alexis Galarneau | L | 7-5, 7-6 |
| 18.09.2026 | Marat Sharipov | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 16.09.2026 | Luca Castelnuovo | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 14.09.2026 | Semen Pankin | W | 5-7, 7-5, 6-3 |
Mattia Bellucci, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Terence Atmane | L | 6-7, 7-6, 7-6 |
| 21.10.2026 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W | 7-6, 2-6, 6-4 |
| 18.10.2026 | Martin Landaluce | W | 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 |
| 17.10.2026 | Shintaro Mochizuki | W | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Alexander Shevchenko | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Alexander Shevchenko | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 15.10.2026 | Luka Pavlovic | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Elias Ymer | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 07.10.2026 | Yi Zhou | L | 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 |
| 06.10.2026 | Alexandre Muller | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Elias Ymer | Mattia Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bolt | 1-0 W 7-6, 7-6 |
1-1 W 6-7, 7-5, 6-3, L 6-3, 6-0 |
| Alexander Shevchenko | 0-1 L 3-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-1 |
2-0 W 6-4, 6-4, W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Brandon Nakashima | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
| Terence Atmane | 0-1 L 4-6, 7-5, 5-5 |
0-1 L 6-7, 7-6, 7-6 |
| Ugo Humbert | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-3 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-7, 6-4 |
| Yi Zhou | 0-1 L 1-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-12: ATP Jinan (China), model gave Elias Ymer 13% at +400
Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci: quick answers
Who won Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci?
Mattia Bellucci beat Elias Ymer 6-2, 6-1, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Elias Ymer and Mattia Bellucci?
Mattia Bellucci leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 13, 2026, won by Mattia Bellucci 6-2, 6-1 at China Jinan.
Who is in better form, Elias Ymer or Mattia Bellucci?
Elias Ymer is 2-8 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 8 Losses). Mattia Bellucci is 8-2 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Elias Ymer and Mattia Bellucci?
Elias Ymer is rated 6683 (ATP #245) and Mattia Bellucci is rated 6864 (ATP #70). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci?
Elias Ymer is priced at +400 and Mattia Bellucci at -714, which implies a 20% and 88% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.