Leylah Fernandez vs Elena Rybakina
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Elena Rybakina, giving them a 76% chance to win against Leylah Fernandez (24%). Elena Rybakina leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Fernandez is 8-2 in their last 10, Rybakina 9-1.
Prediction
The model makes Elena Rybakina a 76% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -2 pts
Model minus book: -3 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Elena Rybakina at -370 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Leylah Fernandez | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 7109 | 7176 |
| Tour rank | WTA #22 | WTA #2 |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 | 9-1 |
| Last 30 days | 8-2 | 5-0 |
| Current streak | 2 Wins | 5 Wins |
| Season record | 30-26 | 55-15 |
| UTR | 12.52 | 12.98 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1853 | 2144 |
| Best surface | Hard | Hard |
| Worst surface | Clay | Grass |
Head to head
Elena Rybakina leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25.10.2026 | Elena Rybakina | 6-2, 6-2 | China Ningbo |
| 17.04.2026 | Elena Rybakina | 6-7, 6-4, 7-6 | Germany Stuttgart |
Recent form
Leylah Fernandez, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Elise Mertens | W | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Himeno Sakatsume | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 25.10.2026 | Elena Rybakina | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 24.10.2026 | Marie Bouzkova | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 23.10.2026 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | W | 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 |
| 21.10.2026 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | W | 7-5, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 19.10.2026 | Elise Mertens | W | 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
| 15.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | L | 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Han Shi | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 12.10.2026 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
Elena Rybakina, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Yulia Putintseva | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 25.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 24.10.2026 | Diana Shnaider | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 23.10.2026 | Katarzyna Kawa | W | 6-1, 3-6, 6-1 |
| 22.10.2026 | Polina Kudermetova | W | 5-0 |
| 03.10.2026 | Alina Charaeva | L | 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 12.09.2026 | Aryna Sabalenka | W | 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 |
| 11.09.2026 | Coco Gauff | W | 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 09.09.2026 | Qinwen Zheng | W | 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
| 07.9.2026 | Naomi Osaka | W | 6-1, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Leylah Fernandez | Elena Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Eala | 1-1 L 6-2, 7-6, W 6-1, 6-4 |
1-1 L 7-5, 6-4, W 6-4, 6-3 |
| Ann Li | 1-1 W 6-3, 6-2, L 6-4, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-2, 7-5 |
| Diana Shnaider | 0-2 L 6-3, 6-0, L 7-5, 6-3 |
3-0 W 6-3, 7-5, W 6-4, 6-4, W 6-3, 6-4 |
| Elise Mertens | 2-0 W 6-2, 7-6, W 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
1-1 L 7-6, 6-1, W 6-1, 6-3 |
| Jessica Pegula | 0-2 L 1-6, 6-4, 6-3, L 6-2, 6-2 |
3-0 W 2-6, 6-3, 6-4, W 6-1, 7-6, W 6-3, 7-6 |
| Katie Boulter | 1-1 W 6-7, 6-3, 6-3, L 3-6, 7-6, 7-5 |
0-1 L 7-5, 2-6, 6-4 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | 1-0 W 5-7, 7-5, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 |
| Magdalena Frech | 1-0 W 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
| Mirra Andreeva | 2-1 W 6-2, 7-5, W 6-1, 6-4, L 7-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-1 |
| Naomi Osaka | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
2-0 W 6-1, 6-4, W 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| Polina Kudermetova | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-1 |
1-0 W 5-0 |
| Shuai Zhang | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-3, 7-5 |
| Talia Gibson | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-0 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-2 |
| Victoria Mboko | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 |
| Xin Yu Wang | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-11-01: WTA Tokyo (Pan Pacific Open) (Japan), model gave Leylah Fernandez 24% at +279
- 2026-10-31: WTA Tokyo (Pan Pacific Open) (Japan), model gave Leylah Fernandez 24% at +279
- 2026-10-30: WTA Tokyo (Pan Pacific Open) (Japan), model gave Leylah Fernandez 24% at +279
Leylah Fernandez vs Elena Rybakina: quick answers
Who will win Leylah Fernandez vs Elena Rybakina?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Elena Rybakina, giving them a 76% chance to win against Leylah Fernandez (24%).
What is the head-to-head record between Leylah Fernandez and Elena Rybakina?
Elena Rybakina leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 25, 2026, won by Elena Rybakina 6-2, 6-2 at China Ningbo.
Who is in better form, Leylah Fernandez or Elena Rybakina?
Leylah Fernandez is 8-2 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Elena Rybakina is 9-1 (current streak: 5 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Leylah Fernandez and Elena Rybakina?
Leylah Fernandez is rated 7109 (WTA #22) and Elena Rybakina is rated 7176 (WTA #2). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Leylah Fernandez vs Elena Rybakina?
Leylah Fernandez is priced at +279 and Elena Rybakina at -370, which implies a 26% and 79% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.