Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Marta Kostyuk
Updated
Ekaterina Alexandrova beat Marta Kostyuk 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Marta Kostyuk at 79%. They are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head. Alexandrova is 6-4 in their last 10, Kostyuk 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Marta Kostyuk a 79% favorite. At -154 the sportsbook implies 61% for Marta Kostyuk, 18 points below the model's 79%.
Model minus book: -23 pts
Model minus book: +18 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Marta Kostyuk at -154 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | Marta Kostyuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 7107 | 7143 |
| Tour rank | WTA #23 | WTA #11 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 4 Losses |
| Season record | 23-26 | 38-14 |
| UTR | 12.38 | 12.94 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1871 | 2031 |
| Best surface | Grass | Clay |
| Worst surface | Clay | Grass |
Head to head
Tied 1-1.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21.10.2026 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 6-4 | China Ningbo |
| 04.09.2026 | Marta Kostyuk | 6-3, 6-2 | USA US Open |
Recent form
Ekaterina Alexandrova, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Kamilla Rakhimova | L | 6-4, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Ann Li | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 23.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | L | 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 |
| 21.10.2026 | Marta Kostyuk | W | 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Hanyu Guo | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 12.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 08.10.2026 | Mirra Andreeva | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 06.10.2026 | Linda Noskova | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 04.10.2026 | Diana Shnaider | W | 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 02.10.2026 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | W | 6-1, 6-4 |
Marta Kostyuk, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21.10.2026 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | L | 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Maria Sakkari | L | 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
| 18.09.2026 | Liudmila Samsonova | L | 4-6, 6-2, 7-5 |
| 06.09.2026 | Linda Noskova | L | 7-5, 5-7, 6-4 |
| 04.09.2026 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | W | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 02.09.2026 | Sloane Stephens | W | 6-1, 7-5 |
| 30.08.2026 | Storm Hunter | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 22.08.2026 | Coco Gauff | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 19.08.2026 | Mirra Andreeva | W | 4-6, 6-0, 6-2 |
| 18.08.2026 | Sloane Stephens | W | 7-5, 7-5 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Ekaterina Alexandrova | Marta Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Anastasia Potapova | 1-0 W 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-2, 1-6, 6-1 |
| Ann Li | 2-1 W 6-4, 6-4, W 6-1, 6-7, 6-1, L 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-0, 6-7, 6-3 |
| Anna Blinkova | 1-0 W 6-7, 6-4, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-7, 6-3, 6-3 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 1-1 W 7-6, 4-6, 6-4, L 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-3 |
| Elina Svitolina | 0-1 L 3-6, 6-0, 6-3 |
1-1 W 6-3, 2-6, 6-2, L 7-5 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | 0-1 L 6-4, 4-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
| Linda Noskova | 1-1 W 6-2, 6-2, L 6-1, 6-1 |
1-2 L 7-5, 5-7, 6-4, L 6-4, 6-4, W 7-6, 6-0 |
| Magda Linette | 0-1 L 6-2, 4-6, 6-1 |
2-0 W 6-4, 6-0, W 6-4 |
| Mirra Andreeva | 1-1 L 7-6, 7-6, W 6-3, 6-4 |
3-1 W 4-6, 6-0, 6-2, L 6-1, 6-3, W 6-3, 7-5, W 7-6, 6-3 |
| Sofia Kenin | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Marta Kostyuk: quick answers
Who won Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Marta Kostyuk?
Ekaterina Alexandrova beat Marta Kostyuk 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Marta Kostyuk at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ekaterina Alexandrova and Marta Kostyuk?
They are tied 1-1. Their most recent meeting was on October 21, 2026, won by Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4 at China Ningbo.
Who is in better form, Ekaterina Alexandrova or Marta Kostyuk?
Ekaterina Alexandrova is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Marta Kostyuk is 5-5 (current streak: 4 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Ekaterina Alexandrova and Marta Kostyuk?
Ekaterina Alexandrova is rated 7107 (WTA #23) and Marta Kostyuk is rated 7143 (WTA #11). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Marta Kostyuk?
Ekaterina Alexandrova is priced at +124 and Marta Kostyuk at -154, which implies a 45% and 61% chance to win. The model rates Marta Kostyuk 18 points higher than the odds do (79% vs 61%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.