Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Leylah Fernandez
Updated
Leylah Fernandez beat Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Leylah Fernandez leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Alexandrova is 6-4 in their last 10, Fernandez 8-2.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Leylah Fernandez a 57% favorite. At +102 the sportsbook implies 50% for Leylah Fernandez, 8 points below the model's 57%.
Model minus book: -14 pts
Model minus book: +8 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Leylah Fernandez at +102 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | Leylah Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 7107 | 7109 |
| Tour rank | WTA #23 | WTA #22 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 30 days | 3-1 | 5-1 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 23-26 | 30-26 |
| UTR | 12.38 | 12.52 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1854 | 1819 |
| Best surface | Grass | Hard |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Leylah Fernandez leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 | China Ningbo |
| 12.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 | China Wuhan |
Recent form
Ekaterina Alexandrova, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Kamilla Rakhimova | L | 6-4, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Ann Li | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 23.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | L | 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 |
| 21.10.2026 | Marta Kostyuk | W | 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Hanyu Guo | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 12.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 08.10.2026 | Mirra Andreeva | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 06.10.2026 | Linda Noskova | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 04.10.2026 | Diana Shnaider | W | 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 02.10.2026 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | W | 6-1, 6-4 |
Leylah Fernandez, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Elise Mertens | W | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Himeno Sakatsume | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 25.10.2026 | Elena Rybakina | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 24.10.2026 | Marie Bouzkova | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 23.10.2026 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | W | 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 |
| 21.10.2026 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | W | 7-5, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 19.10.2026 | Elise Mertens | W | 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
| 15.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | L | 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Han Shi | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 12.10.2026 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Ekaterina Alexandrova | Leylah Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Eala | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
1-1 L 6-2, 7-6, W 6-1, 6-4 |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-7, 6-3 |
| Ann Li | 2-1 W 6-4, 6-4, W 6-1, 6-7, 6-1, L 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
1-1 W 6-3, 6-2, L 6-4, 6-3 |
| Anna Blinkova | 1-0 W 6-7, 6-4, 7-5 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-4 |
| Dayana Yastremska | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-0 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-2 |
| Diana Shnaider | 1-0 W 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
0-2 L 6-3, 6-0, L 7-5, 6-3 |
| Iva Jovic | 0-1 L 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | 0-1 L 6-4, 4-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 |
| Magda Linette | 0-1 L 6-2, 4-6, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-1, 6-4 |
| Mccartney Kessler | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
| Mirra Andreeva | 1-1 L 7-6, 7-6, W 6-3, 6-4 |
2-1 W 6-2, 7-5, W 6-1, 6-4, L 7-6, 6-3 |
| Naomi Osaka | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
| Talia Gibson | 1-1 W 5-7, 6-1, 6-3, L 6-3, 7-5 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-0 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | 0-1 L 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 |
1-1 L 6-4, 7-6, W 6-7, 6-1, 7-6 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-11: WTA Wuhan (China), model gave Ekaterina Alexandrova 43% at -130
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Leylah Fernandez: quick answers
Who won Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Leylah Fernandez?
Leylah Fernandez beat Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Ekaterina Alexandrova and Leylah Fernandez?
Leylah Fernandez leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 23, 2026, won by Leylah Fernandez 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 at China Ningbo.
Who is in better form, Ekaterina Alexandrova or Leylah Fernandez?
Ekaterina Alexandrova is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Leylah Fernandez is 8-2 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Ekaterina Alexandrova and Leylah Fernandez?
Ekaterina Alexandrova is rated 7107 (WTA #23) and Leylah Fernandez is rated 7109 (WTA #22). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Leylah Fernandez?
Ekaterina Alexandrova is priced at -130 and Leylah Fernandez at +102, which implies a 57% and 50% chance to win. The model rates Leylah Fernandez 8 points higher than the odds do (57% vs 50%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.