Egor Pleshivtsev vs Luca Castelnuovo
Updated
Luca Castelnuovo beat Egor Pleshivtsev 7-6, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Luca Castelnuovo leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Pleshivtsev is 5-5 in their last 10, Castelnuovo 4-6.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Luca Castelnuovo a 79% favorite. At -208 the sportsbook implies 68% for Luca Castelnuovo, 12 points below the model's 79%.
Model minus book: -20 pts
Model minus book: +12 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Luca Castelnuovo at -208 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Egor Pleshivtsev | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6350 | 6512 |
| Tour rank | ATP #953 | ATP #508 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 30 days | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 37-27 | 30-28 |
| UTR | 13.19 | 13.83 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | – | 1286 |
| Best surface | – | Hard |
| Worst surface | – | Clay |
Head to head
Luca Castelnuovo leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10.2026 | Luca Castelnuovo | 7-6, 6-4 | China Guangzhou |
Recent form
Egor Pleshivtsev, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Semen Pankin | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 25.10.2026 | Dominik Palan | W | 3-6, 6-1, 7-6 |
| 18.10.2026 | Luca Castelnuovo | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 17.10.2026 | Matthew Dellavedova | L | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 16.10.2026 | Cruz Hewitt | W | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 15.10.2026 | Ye Hongyu | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 14.10.2026 | Evan Zhu | W | 3-6, 6-4, 6-0 |
| 08.10.2026 | Yanki Erel | L | 7-5, 6-1 |
| 07.10.2026 | Yua Taka | W | 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| 18.09.2026 | Arthur Laborde | L | 6-3, 7-6 |
Luca Castelnuovo, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Filip Peliwo | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 25.10.2026 | Yusuke Kusuhara | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Khumoyun Sultanov | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 19.10.2026 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 18.10.2026 | Egor Pleshivtsev | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 05.10.2026 | Akira Santillan | L | 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 |
| 22.09.2026 | Pavel Kotov | L | 6-7, 7-5, 7-5 |
| 16.09.2026 | Elias Ymer | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 15.09.2026 | Omar Jasika | W | 6-7, 6-2, 1-0 |
| 12.09.2026 | Ilya Ivashka | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Egor Pleshivtsev | Luca Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Zhu | 1-0 W 3-6, 6-4, 6-0 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-7, 6-3 |
| James Mccabe | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
1-1 W 6-4, 6-4, L 6-4, 6-4 |
| Matthew Dellavedova | 0-2 L 6-1, 6-1, L 6-2, 7-6 |
1-1 L 4-6, 6-3, 4-1, W 6-4, 0-6, 6-2 |
| Mikalai Haliak | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4 |
| Semen Pankin | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-5, 6-4 |
| Yanki Erel | 0-1 L 7-5, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Ye Hongyu | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-17: ATP Guangzhou (China), model gave Egor Pleshivtsev 21% at +148
Egor Pleshivtsev vs Luca Castelnuovo: quick answers
Who won Egor Pleshivtsev vs Luca Castelnuovo?
Luca Castelnuovo beat Egor Pleshivtsev 7-6, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Egor Pleshivtsev and Luca Castelnuovo?
Luca Castelnuovo leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 18, 2026, won by Luca Castelnuovo 7-6, 6-4 at China Guangzhou.
Who is in better form, Egor Pleshivtsev or Luca Castelnuovo?
Egor Pleshivtsev is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Luca Castelnuovo is 4-6 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Egor Pleshivtsev and Luca Castelnuovo?
Egor Pleshivtsev is rated 6350 (ATP #953) and Luca Castelnuovo is rated 6512 (ATP #508). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Egor Pleshivtsev vs Luca Castelnuovo?
Egor Pleshivtsev is priced at +148 and Luca Castelnuovo at -208, which implies a 40% and 68% chance to win. The model rates Luca Castelnuovo 12 points higher than the odds do (79% vs 68%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.