Karolina Muchova vs Diana Shnaider
Updated
Diana Shnaider beat Karolina Muchova 7-5, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Karolina Muchova at 62%. Diana Shnaider leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Muchova is 7-3 in their last 10, Shnaider 7-3.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Karolina Muchova a 62% favorite. At -103 the sportsbook implies 51% for Karolina Muchova, 11 points below the model's 62%.
Model minus book: +11 pts
Model minus book: -14 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Karolina Muchova at -103 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Karolina Muchova | Diana Shnaider | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 7145 | 7143 |
| Tour rank | WTA #9 | WTA #12 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 6-1 | 3-1 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Win |
| Season record | 43-13 | 36-23 |
| UTR | 12.86 | 12.7 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1992 | 1931 |
| Best surface | Hard | Clay |
| Worst surface | Clay | Grass |
Head to head
Diana Shnaider leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Diana Shnaider | 7-5, 6-3 | China Wuhan |
Recent form
Karolina Muchova, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Diana Shnaider | L | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Caty Mcnally | W | 3-6, 7-6, 7-6 |
| 08.10.2026 | Nikola Bartunkova | L | 6-3, 6-0 |
| 06.10.2026 | Naomi Osaka | W | 7-5, 1-6, 7-6 |
| 04.10.2026 | Liudmila Samsonova | W | 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| 02.10.2026 | Katie Boulter | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 27.09.2026 | Anhelina Kalinina | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 25.09.2026 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 04.09.2026 | Emma Navarro | L | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 02.09.2026 | Katie Boulter | W | 6-1, 6-0 |
Diana Shnaider, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | W | 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Elena Rybakina | L | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 23.10.2026 | Iva Jovic | W | 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 |
| 22.10.2026 | Alexandra Eala | W | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Yulia Putintseva | W | 7-5, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 16.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 15.10.2026 | Karolina Muchova | W | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Yulia Putintseva | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 13.10.2026 | Katie Boulter | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Karolina Muchova | Diana Shnaider |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Eala | 1-0 W 6-0, 6-2 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-4 |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 |
| Alycia Parks | 1-0 W 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 1-6, 6-4, 7-6 |
| Anastasia Potapova | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
2-0 W 6-1, 6-2, W 6-1, 6-3 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 3-6, 7-5, 6-0 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | 1-0 W 7-5, 5-7, 6-3 |
1-0 W 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
| Clara Tauson | 1-0 W 1-6, 6-2, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-5 |
0-1 L 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Elena Rybakina | 1-1 L 7-5, 6-1, W 6-2, 2-6, 6-4 |
0-3 L 6-3, 7-5, L 6-4, 6-4, L 6-3, 6-4 |
| Elina Svitolina | 1-0 W 6-4, 2-6, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-3 |
| Emma Navarro | 0-1 L 6-3, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
| Iga Swiatek | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-0 |
0-1 L 6-2, 6-1 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-4 |
1-0 W 3-6, 7-5, 6-1 |
| Karolina Pliskova | 1-0 W 5-2 |
1-0 W 6-1, 7-6 |
| Katie Boulter | 3-0 W 7-6, 6-1, W 6-1, 6-0, W 6-3, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-1 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | 1-0 W 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
1-1 W 6-3, 6-4, L 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 |
| Madison Keys | 0-1 L 6-4, 7-5 |
1-1 W 6-3, 3-6, 6-0, L 6-7, 7-6, 7-6 |
| Naomi Osaka | 3-0 W 7-5, 1-6, 7-6, W 7-6, 6-4, W 6-1, 1-0 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-2 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-0 |
0-1 L 6-2, 6-7, 6-3 |
| Tereza Valentova | 1-1 W 6-1, 6-4, L 6-2, 6-2 |
1-0 W 7-6, 7-6 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-14: WTA Wuhan (China), model gave Karolina Muchova 62% at -103
Karolina Muchova vs Diana Shnaider: quick answers
Who won Karolina Muchova vs Diana Shnaider?
Diana Shnaider beat Karolina Muchova 7-5, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Karolina Muchova at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karolina Muchova and Diana Shnaider?
Diana Shnaider leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 15, 2026, won by Diana Shnaider 7-5, 6-3 at China Wuhan.
Who is in better form, Karolina Muchova or Diana Shnaider?
Karolina Muchova is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Diana Shnaider is 7-3 (current streak: 1 Win).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Karolina Muchova and Diana Shnaider?
Karolina Muchova is rated 7145 (WTA #9) and Diana Shnaider is rated 7143 (WTA #12). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Karolina Muchova vs Diana Shnaider?
Karolina Muchova is priced at -103 and Diana Shnaider at -108, which implies a 51% and 52% chance to win. The model rates Karolina Muchova 11 points higher than the odds do (62% vs 51%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.