Jelena Ostapenko vs Diana Shnaider
Updated
Jelena Ostapenko beat Diana Shnaider 7-6, 6-1, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Diana Shnaider at 75%. Jelena Ostapenko leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Ostapenko is 6-4 in their last 10, Shnaider 7-3.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Diana Shnaider a 75% favorite. At -200 the sportsbook implies 67% for Diana Shnaider, 8 points below the model's 75%.
Model minus book: -14 pts
Model minus book: +8 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Diana Shnaider at -200 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Jelena Ostapenko | Diana Shnaider | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 7120 | 7143 |
| Tour rank | WTA #17 | WTA #12 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 5-2 | 4-1 |
| Current streak | 2 Losses | 1 Win |
| Season record | 28-21 | 36-23 |
| UTR | 12.44 | 12.7 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1820 | 1931 |
| Best surface | Grass | Clay |
| Worst surface | Hard | Grass |
Head to head
Jelena Ostapenko leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | 7-6, 6-1 | China Wuhan |
| 16.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | 7-6, 6-1 | China Wuhan |
Recent form
Jelena Ostapenko, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Belinda Bencic | L | 6-3, 1-1 |
| 17.10.2026 | Sonay Kartal | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Diana Shnaider | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 16.10.2026 | Diana Shnaider | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 15.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | W | 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Jessica Pegula | W | 2-6, 7-6, 6-3 |
| 13.10.2026 | Daria Kasatkina | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 05.10.2026 | Elise Mertens | L | 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 03.10.2026 | Paula Badosa | W | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 24.09.2026 | Taylah Preston | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
Diana Shnaider, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | W | 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Elena Rybakina | L | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 23.10.2026 | Iva Jovic | W | 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 |
| 22.10.2026 | Alexandra Eala | W | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Yulia Putintseva | W | 7-5, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 16.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 15.10.2026 | Karolina Muchova | W | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Yulia Putintseva | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 13.10.2026 | Katie Boulter | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Jelena Ostapenko | Diana Shnaider |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Eala | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-5 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-4 |
| Anastasia Potapova | 0-1 L 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
2-0 W 6-1, 6-2, W 6-1, 6-3 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | 1-1 W 6-1, 6-2, L 2-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 3-6, 7-5, 6-0 |
| Belinda Bencic | 0-1 L 6-3, 1-1 |
0-2 L 6-2, 7-6, L 6-3, 6-3 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Jessica Pegula | 1-1 W 2-6, 7-6, 6-3, L 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
1-2 W 6-3, 6-3, L 7-5, 6-4, L 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
| Katie Volynets | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
1-0 W 7-5, 7-5 |
| Leylah Fernandez | 1-0 W 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 |
2-0 W 6-3, 6-0, W 7-5, 6-3 |
| Mirra Andreeva | 0-1 L 5-7, 6-2, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
| Rebecca Sramkova | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 4-6, 6-1 |
| Sorana Cirstea | 0-2 L 6-1, 7-6, L 6-2, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-2, 7-6 |
| Tatjana Maria | 0-2 L 4-6, 6-1, 6-2, L 6-1, 1-2 |
1-0 W 6-2, 7-5 |
| Tereza Valentova | 0-1 L 7-5, 3-2 |
1-0 W 7-6, 7-6 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-15: WTA Wuhan (China), model gave Jelena Ostapenko 25% at +158
Jelena Ostapenko vs Diana Shnaider: quick answers
Who won Jelena Ostapenko vs Diana Shnaider?
Jelena Ostapenko beat Diana Shnaider 7-6, 6-1, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Diana Shnaider at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jelena Ostapenko and Diana Shnaider?
Jelena Ostapenko leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 16, 2026, won by Jelena Ostapenko 7-6, 6-1 at China Wuhan.
Who is in better form, Jelena Ostapenko or Diana Shnaider?
Jelena Ostapenko is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Losses). Diana Shnaider is 7-3 (current streak: 1 Win).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Jelena Ostapenko and Diana Shnaider?
Jelena Ostapenko is rated 7120 (WTA #17) and Diana Shnaider is rated 7143 (WTA #12). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Jelena Ostapenko vs Diana Shnaider?
Jelena Ostapenko is priced at +158 and Diana Shnaider at -200, which implies a 39% and 67% chance to win. The model rates Diana Shnaider 8 points higher than the odds do (75% vs 67%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.