Taylor Fritz vs Denis Shapovalov
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Taylor Fritz, giving them a 72% chance to win against Denis Shapovalov (28%). Taylor Fritz leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Fritz is 6-4 in their last 10, Shapovalov 6-4.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Taylor Fritz a 72% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: +2 pts
Model minus book: -8 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Taylor Fritz at -227 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Taylor Fritz | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6955 | 6917 |
| Tour rank | ATP #11 | ATP #27 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 5-3 | 3-1 |
| Current streak | 2 Wins | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 40-23 | 23-24 |
| UTR | 16.13 | 15.67 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1930 | 1816 |
| Best surface | Grass | Hard |
| Worst surface | Clay | Grass |
Head to head
Taylor Fritz leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Taylor Fritz | 6-4, 6-3 | Switzerland Basel |
Recent form
Taylor Fritz, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Denis Shapovalov | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 28.10.2026 | Rinky Hijikata | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 25.10.2026 | Lorenzo Musetti | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 24.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 23.10.2026 | Daniel Altmaier | W | 7-6, 6-2 |
| 22.10.2026 | Pierre Hugues Herbert | W | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 12.10.2026 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | L | 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| 10.10.2026 | Matteo Arnaldi | W | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 01.10.2026 | Jaume Munar | L | 6-7, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 26.09.2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | L | 6-3, 4-6, 13-11 |
Denis Shapovalov, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Taylor Fritz | L | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 28.10.2026 | Remy Bertola | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 04.10.2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | L | 7-6, 2-1 |
| 03.10.2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | W | 7-5, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 01.10.2026 | Sho Shimabukuro | W | 7-5, 6-1 |
| 28.09.2026 | Hubert Hurkacz | L | 6-7, 6-3, 6-3 |
| 27.09.2026 | Adrian Mannarino | W | 6-7, 6-3, 6-2 |
| 25.09.2026 | Vit Kopriva | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 24.09.2026 | Tallon Griekspoor | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 05.09.2026 | Ben Shelton | L | 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Taylor Fritz | Denis Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Alex De Minaur | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-1 |
| Ben Shelton | 1-2 W 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, L 6-4, 2-6, 6-4, L 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
0-2 L 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4, L 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-7, 6-3 |
0-1 L 7-5, 6-3 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 0-2 L 6-3, 4-6, 13-11, L 6-7, 7-5, 6-3 |
0-1 L 7-6, 2-1 |
| Fabian Marozsan | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-2 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 0-1 L 7-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-7, 6-3, 6-3 |
| Marin Cilic | 1-0 W 7-6, 7-6 |
0-2 L 6-7, 6-4, 7-5, L 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 |
| Rafael Jodar | 2-0 W 7-6, 6-4, W 7-6, 6-4 |
1-1 L 7-5, 4-6, 7-5, W 6-1, 6-2 |
| Rinky Hijikata | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
1-0 W 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0-2 L 3-6, 7-5, 6-3, L 6-4, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-2, 3-6, 6-4 |
| Vit Kopriva | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-4, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-3 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-29: ATP Basel (Switzerland), model gave Taylor Fritz 72% at -227
Taylor Fritz vs Denis Shapovalov: quick answers
Who will win Taylor Fritz vs Denis Shapovalov?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Taylor Fritz, giving them a 72% chance to win against Denis Shapovalov (28%).
What is the head-to-head record between Taylor Fritz and Denis Shapovalov?
Taylor Fritz leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 29, 2026, won by Taylor Fritz 6-4, 6-3 at Switzerland Basel.
Who is in better form, Taylor Fritz or Denis Shapovalov?
Taylor Fritz is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Denis Shapovalov is 6-4 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Taylor Fritz and Denis Shapovalov?
Taylor Fritz is rated 6955 (ATP #11) and Denis Shapovalov is rated 6917 (ATP #27). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Taylor Fritz vs Denis Shapovalov?
Taylor Fritz is priced at -227 and Denis Shapovalov at +179, which implies a 69% and 36% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.