Daria Kasatkina vs Jelena Ostapenko
Updated
Jelena Ostapenko beat Daria Kasatkina 6-1, 6-1, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Jelena Ostapenko leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Kasatkina is 4-6 in their last 10, Ostapenko 6-4.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Jelena Ostapenko a 58% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -3 pts
Model minus book: -2 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Jelena Ostapenko at -149 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Daria Kasatkina | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 7006 | 7120 |
| Tour rank | WTA #61 | WTA #17 |
| Last 10 matches | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 2 Losses |
| Season record | 24-23 | 28-21 |
| UTR | 12.15 | 12.44 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1764 | 1820 |
| Best surface | Clay | Grass |
| Worst surface | Hard | Hard |
Head to head
Jelena Ostapenko leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | 6-1, 6-1 | China Wuhan |
Recent form
Daria Kasatkina, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Talia Gibson | L | 6-0, 7-5 |
| 25.10.2026 | Kimberly Birrell | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 24.10.2026 | Ye Xin Ma | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 19.10.2026 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 13.10.2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | L | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 11.10.2026 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | W | 2-6, 6-2, 6-1 |
| 10.10.2026 | Viktorija Golubic | W | 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 01.10.2026 | Paula Badosa | L | 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 21.09.2026 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | L | 7-5, 6-0 |
| 02.09.2026 | Paula Badosa | L | 6-1, 6-4 |
Jelena Ostapenko, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Belinda Bencic | L | 6-3, 1-1 |
| 17.10.2026 | Sonay Kartal | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Diana Shnaider | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 16.10.2026 | Diana Shnaider | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 15.10.2026 | Leylah Fernandez | W | 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Jessica Pegula | W | 2-6, 7-6, 6-3 |
| 13.10.2026 | Daria Kasatkina | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 05.10.2026 | Elise Mertens | L | 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 03.10.2026 | Paula Badosa | W | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 24.09.2026 | Taylah Preston | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Daria Kasatkina | Jelena Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Anastasia Potapova | 0-1 L 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 |
0-1 L 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
2-0 W 6-4, 6-1, W 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | 0-1 L 5-7, 7-6, 6-0 |
1-1 W 6-1, 6-2, L 2-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 0-1 L 6-0, 7-5 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
| Elise Mertens | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-0 |
0-1 L 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Paula Badosa | 0-2 L 4-6, 7-6, 6-4, L 6-1, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-6, 7-5 |
| Simona Waltert | 0-1 L 7-6, 3-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 7-5 |
| Xin Yu Wang | 1-0 W 1-6, 7-6, 7-5 |
0-1 L 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | 1-1 L 2-6, 7-6, 6-3, W 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-0 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-12: WTA Wuhan (China), model gave Daria Kasatkina 42% at +120
Daria Kasatkina vs Jelena Ostapenko: quick answers
Who won Daria Kasatkina vs Jelena Ostapenko?
Jelena Ostapenko beat Daria Kasatkina 6-1, 6-1, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Daria Kasatkina and Jelena Ostapenko?
Jelena Ostapenko leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 13, 2026, won by Jelena Ostapenko 6-1, 6-1 at China Wuhan.
Who is in better form, Daria Kasatkina or Jelena Ostapenko?
Daria Kasatkina is 4-6 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Jelena Ostapenko is 6-4 (current streak: 2 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Daria Kasatkina and Jelena Ostapenko?
Daria Kasatkina is rated 7006 (WTA #61) and Jelena Ostapenko is rated 7120 (WTA #17). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Daria Kasatkina vs Jelena Ostapenko?
Daria Kasatkina is priced at +120 and Jelena Ostapenko at -149, which implies a 45% and 60% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.