Liam Draxl vs Daniil Ostapenkov
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Liam Draxl, giving them a 89% chance to win against Daniil Ostapenkov (11%). Daniil Ostapenkov leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Draxl is 7-3 in their last 10, Ostapenkov 7-3. At -400, the odds imply 80% for Liam Draxl, below the model's 89%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Liam Draxl a 89% favorite. At -400 the sportsbook implies 80% for Liam Draxl, 9 points below the model's 89%.
Model minus book: +9 pts
Model minus book: -17 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Liam Draxl at -400 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Liam Draxl | Daniil Ostapenkov | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6750 | 6504 |
| Tour rank | ATP #155 | ATP #515 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 8-2 | 3-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 4 Wins |
| Season record | 43-27 | 42-23 |
| UTR | 14.74 | 13.77 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1603 | 1421 |
| Best surface | Hard | Clay |
| Worst surface | Grass | Hard |
Head to head
Daniil Ostapenkov leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Daniil Ostapenkov | 4-5 | USA Sioux Falls |
Recent form
Liam Draxl, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Daniil Ostapenkov | L | 4-5 |
| 27.10.2026 | Tomasz Berkieta | W | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 17.10.2026 | Martin Landaluce | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Tomas Machac | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Tomas Machac | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 15.10.2026 | Ilya Ivashka | W | 6-4, 0-6, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | James Duckworth | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Omar Jasika | W | 5-7, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 11.10.2026 | Yutong Du | W | 6-1, 6-0 |
| 06.10.2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | L | 5-7, 7-5, 6-4 |
Daniil Ostapenkov, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Liam Draxl | W | 4-5 |
| 28.10.2026 | Ozan Baris | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 26.10.2026 | Gavin Young | W | 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 25.10.2026 | Quinn Vandecasteele | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 18.10.2026 | Albert Pedrico Kravtsov | L | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 01.10.2026 | Abedallah Shelbayh | L | 6-1, 7-5 |
| 29.09.2026 | Raphael Perot | W | 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 28.09.2026 | Quinn Vandecasteele | W | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 28.09.2026 | Ilija Palavestra | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 21.09.2026 | Timo Legout | L | 6-3, 6-1 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Liam Draxl | Daniil Ostapenkov |
|---|---|---|
| Ilia Simakin | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-7, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-3 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-29: ATP Sioux Falls (USA), model gave Liam Draxl 89% at -400
Liam Draxl vs Daniil Ostapenkov: quick answers
Who will win Liam Draxl vs Daniil Ostapenkov?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Liam Draxl, giving them a 89% chance to win against Daniil Ostapenkov (11%).
What is the head-to-head record between Liam Draxl and Daniil Ostapenkov?
Daniil Ostapenkov leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 29, 2026, won by Daniil Ostapenkov 4-5 at USA Sioux Falls.
Who is in better form, Liam Draxl or Daniil Ostapenkov?
Liam Draxl is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Daniil Ostapenkov is 7-3 (current streak: 4 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Liam Draxl and Daniil Ostapenkov?
Liam Draxl is rated 6750 (ATP #155) and Daniil Ostapenkov is rated 6504 (ATP #515). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Liam Draxl vs Daniil Ostapenkov?
Liam Draxl is priced at -400 and Daniil Ostapenkov at +263, which implies a 80% and 28% chance to win. The model rates Liam Draxl 9 points higher than the odds do (89% vs 80%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.