Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul
Updated
Daniil Medvedev beat Tommy Paul 6-3, 1-6, 6-3, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Daniil Medvedev leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Medvedev is 9-1 in their last 10, Paul 6-4.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Daniil Medvedev a 57% favorite. At +178 the sportsbook implies 36% for Tommy Paul, 7 points below the model's 43%.
Model minus book: -12 pts
Model minus book: +7 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Tommy Paul at +178 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Daniil Medvedev | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6965 | 6967 |
| Tour rank | ATP #9 | ATP #7 |
| Last 10 matches | 9-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 10-1 | 3-1 |
| Current streak | 6 Wins | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 53-19 | 47-22 |
| UTR | 15.97 | 15.97 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1965 | 1937 |
| Best surface | Hard | Clay |
| Worst surface | Clay | Hard |
Head to head
Daniil Medvedev leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 | ATP Shanghai |
| 16.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 | China Shangai - Masters |
Recent form
Daniil Medvedev, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Cameron Norrie | W | 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
| 28.10.2026 | Daniel Merida Aguilar | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 25.10.2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | W | 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Alexander Bublik | W | 6-3 |
| 23.10.2026 | Terence Atmane | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 22.10.2026 | Sho Shimabukuro | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 17.10.2026 | Rafael Jodar | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | W | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | W | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | W | 6-4, 7-5 |
Tommy Paul, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Luciano Darderi | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 27.10.2026 | Andrey Rublev | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 24.10.2026 | Taylor Fritz | L | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 23.10.2026 | Corentin Moutet | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Zizou Bergs | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 12.10.2026 | Valentin Vacherot | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 10.10.2026 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 30.09.2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | L | 6-1, 6-2 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Daniil Medvedev | Tommy Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Walton | 0-1 L 6-2, 1-6, 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-3 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-2 |
| Alexander Bublik | 1-0 W 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
| Andrey Rublev | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-2 |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | 0-1 L 6-3, 7-6 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-3 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 1-0 W 6-3, 7-6 |
0-2 L 6-4, 6-3, 6-4, L 7-6, 6-4, 7-5 |
| Coleman Wong | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-7, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-7, 6-1, 6-3, 6-3 |
| Daniel Altmaier | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-7, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 7-5 |
| Flavio Cobolli | 0-1 L 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 |
0-1 L 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Frances Tiafoe | 1-1 L 7-6, 6-4, 7-6, W 6-3, 6-2 |
1-0 W 7-5, 4-6, 7-6 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 1-1 W 7-6, 6-3, L 6-0, 4-6, 7-5 |
0-1 L 6-7, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Jenson Brooksby | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-1 |
1-0 W 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | 1-1 L 7-6, 6-1, W 6-7, 6-3, 6-2 |
0-1 L 7-5, 7-6 |
| Learner Tien | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-0, 6-3 |
1-1 L 6-3, 6-2, W 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Novak Djokovic | 0-1 L 7-5, 5-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-7, 7-5 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
1-1 L 7-5, 6-4, W 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
3-0 W 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, W 6-4, 6-2, W 6-1, 6-3 |
| Ugo Humbert | 0-1 L 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
| Valentin Royer | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-15: ATP Shangai - Masters (China), model gave Daniil Medvedev 57% at -222
Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul: quick answers
Who won Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul?
Daniil Medvedev beat Tommy Paul 6-3, 1-6, 6-3, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul?
Daniil Medvedev leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 16, 2026, won by Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 at ATP Shanghai.
Who is in better form, Daniil Medvedev or Tommy Paul?
Daniil Medvedev is 9-1 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 6 Wins). Tommy Paul is 6-4 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul?
Daniil Medvedev is rated 6965 (ATP #9) and Tommy Paul is rated 6967 (ATP #7). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul?
Daniil Medvedev is priced at -222 and Tommy Paul at +178, which implies a 69% and 36% chance to win. The model rates Tommy Paul 7 points higher than the odds do (43% vs 36%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.