Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Updated
Daniil Medvedev beat Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4, 7-5, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. They are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head. Medvedev is 9-1 in their last 10, Tsitsipas 7-3.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Daniil Medvedev a 56% favorite. At +183 the sportsbook implies 35% for Stefanos Tsitsipas, 9 points below the model's 44%.
Model minus book: -13 pts
Model minus book: +9 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Stefanos Tsitsipas at +183 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Daniil Medvedev | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6965 | 6910 |
| Tour rank | ATP #9 | ATP #34 |
| Last 10 matches | 9-1 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 9-1 | 8-1 |
| Current streak | 6 Wins | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 53-19 | 42-24 |
| UTR | 15.97 | 15.91 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1965 | 1890 |
| Best surface | Hard | Clay |
| Worst surface | Clay | Grass |
Head to head
Tied 1-1.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4, 7-5 | China Shangai - Masters |
| 18.02.2026 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6-3, 6-4 | Qatar Doha |
Recent form
Daniil Medvedev, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Cameron Norrie | W | 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
| 28.10.2026 | Daniel Merida Aguilar | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 25.10.2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | W | 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Alexander Bublik | W | 6-3 |
| 23.10.2026 | Terence Atmane | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 22.10.2026 | Sho Shimabukuro | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 17.10.2026 | Rafael Jodar | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | W | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | W | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | W | 6-4, 7-5 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10.2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | L | 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 23.10.2026 | James Duckworth | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 21.10.2026 | Mikhail Kukushkin | W | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 20.10.2026 | Aleksandar Kovacevic | W | 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 12.10.2026 | Taylor Fritz | W | 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| 10.10.2026 | Luciano Darderi | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 08.10.2026 | Kimmer Coppejans | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 02.10.2026 | Valentin Vacherot | L | 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 01.10.2026 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W | 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Daniil Medvedev | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik | 1-0 W 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-2, 7-5 |
| Andrey Rublev | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-4 |
0-2 L 17-15, 16-14, 23-13, L 6-3, 7-6 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 |
2-0 W 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, W 7-5, 6-3 |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | 0-1 L 6-3, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-4, 7-6 |
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | 2-0 W 7-6, 6-1, W 3-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
| Denis Shapovalov | 1-0 W 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-2, 3-6, 6-4 |
| Fabian Marozsan | 2-0 W 6-2, 6-7, 6-4, W 6-7, 4-6, 7-5, 6-0, 6-3 |
0-1 L 3-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 7-5 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 1-1 W 7-6, 6-3, L 6-0, 4-6, 7-5 |
0-1 L 7-5, 6-4 |
| Hugo Gaston | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Jenson Brooksby | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
| Learner Tien | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-0, 6-3 |
0-1 L 7-6, 7-6 |
| Martin Damm | 0-1 L 7-5, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1-0 W 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
| Novak Djokovic | 0-1 L 7-5, 5-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Ugo Humbert | 0-1 L 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
1-1 W 21-9, 10-15, 18-12, 18-13, L 6-4, 7-5 |
| Valentin Royer | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-6, 7-5 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-13: ATP Shangai - Masters (China), model gave Daniil Medvedev 56% at -222
Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: quick answers
Who won Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Daniil Medvedev beat Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4, 7-5, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas?
They are tied 1-1. Their most recent meeting was on October 14, 2026, won by Daniil Medvedev 6-4, 7-5 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Daniil Medvedev or Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Daniil Medvedev is 9-1 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 6 Wins). Stefanos Tsitsipas is 7-3 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Daniil Medvedev is rated 6965 (ATP #9) and Stefanos Tsitsipas is rated 6910 (ATP #34). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Daniil Medvedev is priced at -222 and Stefanos Tsitsipas at +183, which implies a 69% and 35% chance to win. The model rates Stefanos Tsitsipas 9 points higher than the odds do (44% vs 35%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.