Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev
Updated
Rafael Jodar beat Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Rafael Jodar leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Jodar is 7-3 in their last 10, Medvedev 9-1.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Rafael Jodar a 50% favorite. At +155 the sportsbook implies 39% for Rafael Jodar, 11 points below the model's 50%.
Model minus book: +11 pts
Model minus book: -17 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Rafael Jodar at +155 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Rafael Jodar | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6980 | 6965 |
| Tour rank | ATP #5 | ATP #9 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 9-1 |
| Last 30 days | 6-1 | 11-1 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 6 Wins |
| Season record | 60-20 | 53-19 |
| UTR | 16.18 | 15.97 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1971 | 1965 |
| Best surface | Clay | Hard |
| Worst surface | Grass | Clay |
Head to head
Rafael Jodar leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10.2026 | Rafael Jodar | 6-3, 6-4 | China Shangai - Masters |
Recent form
Rafael Jodar, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Valentin Vacherot | L | 7-6, 2-6, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 18.10.2026 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L | 1-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 17.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Casper Ruud | W | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 15.10.2026 | Casper Ruud | W | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Botic Van De Zandschulp | W | 6-7, 6-4, 6-2 |
| 12.10.2026 | Jiri Lehecka | W | 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 10.10.2026 | Thiago Agustin Tirante | W | 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 01.10.2026 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L | 6-1, 6-3 |
Daniil Medvedev, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Cameron Norrie | W | 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
| 28.10.2026 | Daniel Merida Aguilar | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 25.10.2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | W | 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Alexander Bublik | W | 6-3 |
| 23.10.2026 | Terence Atmane | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 22.10.2026 | Sho Shimabukuro | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 17.10.2026 | Rafael Jodar | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | W | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | W | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | W | 6-4, 7-5 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Rafael Jodar | Daniil Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Tabilo | 3-1 W 6-4, 6-2, W 6-2, 6-1, W 6-7, 6-4, 6-4, L 6-1, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
| Alex Michelsen | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-7, 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
2-0 W 6-2, 6-4, W 6-4, 6-2 |
| Alexander Bublik | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-3 |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | 1-0 W 6-7, 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 7-6 |
| Brandon Nakashima | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-4 |
1-1 L 6-7, 7-6, 6-1, W 6-2, 7-6 |
| Cameron Norrie | 2-0 W 6-3, 6-2, W 6-3, 6-2 |
1-0 W 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
| Denis Shapovalov | 1-1 W 7-5, 4-6, 7-5, L 6-1, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-4 |
| Flavio Cobolli | 0-1 L 4-6, 7-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 |
| Jannik Sinner | 0-1 L 6-2, 7-6 |
0-2 L 6-2, 5-7, 6-4, L 7-6, 7-6 |
| Jesper De Jong | 1-0 W 2-6, 7-5, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-2, 7-6 |
| Learner Tien | 2-0 W 6-1, 6-4, W 1-4, 4-3, 1-4, 4-2, 4-3 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-0, 6-3 |
| Marco Trungelliti | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-4, 7-5 |
| Martin Landaluce | 1-0 W 4-3, 4-1, 4-3 |
1-0 W 1-6, 6-4, 7-5 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 0-1 L 4-1, 4-2, 1-4, 4-2 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | 2-0 W 3-6, 6-3, 1-6, 6-3, 6-4, W 4-6, 4-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
| Rei Sakamoto | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-1, 5-7, 4-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-7, 6-3, 6-1 |
| Sho Shimabukuro | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-1 |
| Terence Atmane | 0-1 L 6-2, 4-6, 6-1 |
2-0 W 6-4, 6-4, W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | 1-0 W 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 0-1 L 7-5, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-16: ATP Shangai - Masters (China), model gave Rafael Jodar 50% at +155
Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev: quick answers
Who won Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev?
Rafael Jodar beat Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Rafael Jodar and Daniil Medvedev?
Rafael Jodar leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 17, 2026, won by Rafael Jodar 6-3, 6-4 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Rafael Jodar or Daniil Medvedev?
Rafael Jodar is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Daniil Medvedev is 9-1 (current streak: 6 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Rafael Jodar and Daniil Medvedev?
Rafael Jodar is rated 6980 (ATP #5) and Daniil Medvedev is rated 6965 (ATP #9). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev?
Rafael Jodar is priced at +155 and Daniil Medvedev at -200, which implies a 39% and 67% chance to win. The model rates Rafael Jodar 11 points higher than the odds do (50% vs 39%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.