Maria Shmakova vs Constanza Fernandez Rincon
Updated
Maria Shmakova beat Constanza Fernandez Rincon 6-0, 1-6, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Constanza Fernandez Rincon at 52%. Maria Shmakova leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Shmakova is 8-2 in their last 10, Rincon 4-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Constanza Fernandez Rincon a 52% favorite. At +503 the sportsbook implies 17% for Constanza Fernandez Rincon, 35 points below the model's 52%.
Model minus book: -45 pts
Model minus book: +35 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Constanza Fernandez Rincon at +503 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Maria Shmakova | Constanza Fernandez Rincon | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6083 | 5918 |
| Tour rank | WTA #1756 | WTA #2476 |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 | 4-5 |
| Last 30 days | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Win | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 12-8 | 4-5 |
| UTR | 9.65 | 9.76 |
Head to head
Maria Shmakova leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10.2026 | Maria Shmakova | 6-0, 1-6, 6-3 | USA UTR Pro Match Series |
Recent form
Maria Shmakova, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10.2026 | Constanza Fernandez Rincon | W | 6-0, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 10.10.2026 | Hannah Read | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 08.10.2026 | Vessa Turley | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 06.10.2026 | Zoe Olmos | W | 6-3, 5-7, 6-0 |
| 05.10.2026 | Emily.Deming | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 27.09.2026 | Sein Myoung | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 25.09.2026 | Karin Altori | W | 1-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| 25.09.2026 | Chelsea Bluestein | L | 6-2, 5-7, 7-6 |
| 24.09.2026 | Ella Piron | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 30.08.2026 | Juny Huh | W | 6-3, 6-0 |
Constanza Fernandez Rincon, last 9
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.10.2026 | Maria Shmakova | L | 6-0, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 07.10.2026 | Vessa Turley | W | 6-3, 2-6, 7-5 |
| 05.10.2026 | Zoe Olmos | L | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 21.07.2026 | Megan Knight | L | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 15.05.2026 | Ellen Hirschi | W | 6-4, 2-6, 1-0 |
| 04.04.2026 | Zelie Bretin | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 31.03.2026 | Chen Yun Tsai | W | 4-6, 6-0, 7-6 |
| 24.02.2026 | Valentina Losciale | L | 7-6, 6-2 |
| 28.01.2026 | Leah Puk | L | 6-2, 6-0 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Maria Shmakova | Constanza Fernandez Rincon |
|---|---|---|
| Vessa Turley | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-3, 2-6, 7-5 |
| Zoe Olmos | 1-0 W 6-3, 5-7, 6-0 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-08: WTA UTR Pro Match Series (exh.) (USA), model gave Constanza Fernandez Rincon 52%
- 2026-10-07: WTA UTR Pro Match Series (exh.) (USA), model gave Constanza Fernandez Rincon 52%
Maria Shmakova vs Constanza Fernandez Rincon: quick answers
Who won Maria Shmakova vs Constanza Fernandez Rincon?
Maria Shmakova beat Constanza Fernandez Rincon 6-0, 1-6, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Constanza Fernandez Rincon at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maria Shmakova and Constanza Fernandez Rincon?
Maria Shmakova leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 10, 2026, won by Maria Shmakova 6-0, 1-6, 6-3 at USA UTR Pro Match Series.
Who is in better form, Maria Shmakova or Constanza Fernandez Rincon?
Maria Shmakova is 8-2 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Win). Constanza Fernandez Rincon is 4-5 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Maria Shmakova and Constanza Fernandez Rincon?
Maria Shmakova is rated 6083 (WTA #1756) and Constanza Fernandez Rincon is rated 5918 (WTA #2476). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Maria Shmakova vs Constanza Fernandez Rincon?
Maria Shmakova is priced at -1429 and Constanza Fernandez Rincon at +503, which implies a 93% and 17% chance to win. The model rates Constanza Fernandez Rincon 35 points higher than the odds do (52% vs 17%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.