Chiara Fornasieri vs Matilde Paoletti
Updated
Matilde Paoletti beat Chiara Fornasieri 6-2, 7-5, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Matilde Paoletti leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Fornasieri is 7-3 in their last 10, Paoletti 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Matilde Paoletti a 91% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -10 pts
Model minus book: -1 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Matilde Paoletti at -1111 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Chiara Fornasieri | Matilde Paoletti | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6335 | 6573 |
| Tour rank | WTA #893 | WTA #436 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 6-2 | 5-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 37-17 | 16-12 |
| UTR | 10.58 | 11.38 |
Head to head
Matilde Paoletti leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Matilde Paoletti | 6-2, 7-5 | Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula |
Recent form
Chiara Fornasieri, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Matilde Paoletti | L | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 14.10.2026 | Matilde Mariani | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 13.10.2026 | Federica Bilardo | W | 6-3, 3-1 |
| 10.10.2026 | Lujza Beviz | L | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 09.10.2026 | Anika Jaskova | W | 6-1, 7-5 |
| 08.10.2026 | Lana Virc | W | 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 07.10.2026 | Patricia Georgiana Goina | W | 6-0, 6-2 |
| 17.09.2026 | Viola Turini | L | 6-3, 6-0 |
| 16.09.2026 | Alessandra Fiorillo | W | 6-1, 7-5 |
| 15.09.2026 | Barbara Dessolis | W | 6-2, 0-6, 10-7 |
Matilde Paoletti, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Alessandra Mazzola | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 21.10.2026 | Ginevra Parentini Vallega Montebruno | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Jessica Pieri | L | 3-6, 6-1, 6-2 |
| 16.10.2026 | Jessica Pieri | L | 3-6, 6-1, 6-2 |
| 15.10.2026 | Chiara Fornasieri | W | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 14.10.2026 | Giulia Paterno | W | 6-0, 6-0 |
| 09.10.2026 | Alessandra Mazzola | L | 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 |
| 08.10.2026 | Eva Bennemann | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 07.10.2026 | Francesca Gandolfi | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 18.09.2026 | Alisa Oktiabreva | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Chiara Fornasieri | Matilde Paoletti |
|---|---|---|
| Francesca Gandolfi | 1-0 W 7-5, 3-6, 11-9 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-14: WTA Santa Margherita Di Pula (X) (Italy), model gave Chiara Fornasieri 9% at +421
Chiara Fornasieri vs Matilde Paoletti: quick answers
Who won Chiara Fornasieri vs Matilde Paoletti?
Matilde Paoletti beat Chiara Fornasieri 6-2, 7-5, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiara Fornasieri and Matilde Paoletti?
Matilde Paoletti leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 15, 2026, won by Matilde Paoletti 6-2, 7-5 at Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula.
Who is in better form, Chiara Fornasieri or Matilde Paoletti?
Chiara Fornasieri is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Matilde Paoletti is 5-5 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Chiara Fornasieri and Matilde Paoletti?
Chiara Fornasieri is rated 6335 (WTA #893) and Matilde Paoletti is rated 6573 (WTA #436). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Chiara Fornasieri vs Matilde Paoletti?
Chiara Fornasieri is priced at +421 and Matilde Paoletti at -1111, which implies a 19% and 92% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.