Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud
Updated
Rafael Jodar beat Casper Ruud 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Rafael Jodar leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Jodar is 7-3 in their last 10, Ruud 6-4.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Rafael Jodar a 55% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -1 pts
Model minus book: -1 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Rafael Jodar at -130 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Rafael Jodar | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6980 | 6936 |
| Tour rank | ATP #5 | ATP #19 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 5-1 | 6-1 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 60-20 | 37-21 |
| UTR | 16.18 | 16.04 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1971 | 1937 |
| Best surface | Clay | Clay |
| Worst surface | Grass | Grass |
Head to head
Rafael Jodar leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.10.2026 | Rafael Jodar | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 | China Shangai - Masters |
| 15.10.2026 | Rafael Jodar | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 | ATP Shanghai |
Recent form
Rafael Jodar, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Valentin Vacherot | L | 7-6, 2-6, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 18.10.2026 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L | 1-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 17.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Casper Ruud | W | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 15.10.2026 | Casper Ruud | W | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Botic Van De Zandschulp | W | 6-7, 6-4, 6-2 |
| 12.10.2026 | Jiri Lehecka | W | 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 10.10.2026 | Thiago Agustin Tirante | W | 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 01.10.2026 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L | 6-1, 6-3 |
Casper Ruud, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Nuno Borges | L | 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 26.10.2026 | Dominic Stricker | W | 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Rafael Jodar | L | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 15.10.2026 | Rafael Jodar | L | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Felix Auger Aliassime | W | 5-2 |
| 12.10.2026 | Learner Tien | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 10.10.2026 | Bu Yunchaokete | W | 6-1, 7-6 |
| 01.10.2026 | Luciano Darderi | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 25.09.2026 | Francisco Cerundolo | W | 6-7, 6-4, 10-8 |
| 19.09.2026 | Fnu Nidunjianzan | W | 6-2, 6-0 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Rafael Jodar | Casper Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0-1 L 1-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-1 |
| Alex De Minaur | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
| Alexander Blockx | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
| Alexander Bublik | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-3 |
1-0 W 15-14, 18-8, 20-4 |
| Bu Yunchaokete | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-1, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-1, 7-6 |
| Corentin Moutet | 1-0 W 4-6, 6-1, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-3 |
| Ethan Quinn | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-4, 7-6 |
| Jaime Faria | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-7, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Jakub Mensik | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-5, 7-6 |
| Jannik Sinner | 0-1 L 6-2, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
| Jaume Munar | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-2 |
2-0 W 6-0, 6-1, W 6-3, 7-5, 6-4 |
| Jiri Lehecka | 2-0 W 4-6, 7-6, 6-4, W 6-3, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
| Joao Fonseca | 1-0 W 7-6, 4-6, 6-1 |
0-2 L 7-6, 6-3, L 7-5, 7-6, 5-7, 6-2 |
| Learner Tien | 2-0 W 6-1, 6-4, W 1-4, 4-3, 1-4, 4-2, 4-3 |
1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 2-0 W 6-4, 6-3, W 1-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-1 |
| Luciano Darderi | 0-1 L 7-6, 5-7, 6-0 |
1-1 L 7-6, 6-3, W 6-1, 6-1 |
| Nuno Borges | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
0-1 L 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Valentin Vacherot | 0-1 L 7-6, 2-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-15: ATP Shangai - Masters (China), model gave Rafael Jodar 55% at -130
Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud: quick answers
Who won Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud?
Rafael Jodar beat Casper Ruud 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Rafael Jodar and Casper Ruud?
Rafael Jodar leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 16, 2026, won by Rafael Jodar 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Rafael Jodar or Casper Ruud?
Rafael Jodar is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Casper Ruud is 6-4 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Rafael Jodar and Casper Ruud?
Rafael Jodar is rated 6980 (ATP #5) and Casper Ruud is rated 6936 (ATP #19). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud?
Rafael Jodar is priced at -130 and Casper Ruud at +117, which implies a 57% and 46% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.