Gonzalo Bueno vs Carlos Maria Zarate
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Gonzalo Bueno, giving them a 87% chance to win against Carlos Maria Zarate (13%). Carlos Maria Zarate leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Bueno is 5-5 in their last 10, Zarate 5-5. At -213, the odds imply 68% for Gonzalo Bueno, below the model's 87%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Gonzalo Bueno a 87% favorite. At -213 the sportsbook implies 68% for Gonzalo Bueno, 19 points below the model's 87%.
Model minus book: +19 pts
Model minus book: -27 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Gonzalo Bueno at -213 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Gonzalo Bueno | Carlos Maria Zarate | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6662 | 6470 |
| Tour rank | ATP #268 | ATP #591 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 2-1 | 4-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 35-30 | 52-27 |
| UTR | 14.28 | 13.68 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1490 | 1212 |
| Best surface | Clay | Grass |
| Worst surface | Hard | Clay |
Head to head
Carlos Maria Zarate leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Carlos Maria Zarate | 3-6, 7-5, 7-5 | Ecuador Guayaquil |
Recent form
Gonzalo Bueno, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Carlos Maria Zarate | L | 3-6, 7-5, 7-5 |
| 27.10.2026 | Alex Barrena | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 19.10.2026 | Hernan Casanova | W | 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
| 13.10.2026 | Maximo Zeitune | L | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 08.09.2026 | Carlos Sanchez Jover | W | 0-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 02.09.2026 | Max Schoenhaus | L | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 31.08.2026 | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | W | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 24.08.2026 | Billy Harris | L | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 20.08.2026 | Valentin Royer | L | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 19.08.2026 | Edward Winter | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
Carlos Maria Zarate, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Gonzalo Bueno | W | 3-6, 7-5, 7-5 |
| 28.10.2026 | Alan Magadan | W | 7-5, 6-1 |
| 23.10.2026 | Felipe Meligeni Alves | L | 6-2, 3-6, 7-5 |
| 22.10.2026 | Francisco Comesana | L | 2-6, 7-6 |
| 21.10.2026 | Franco Ribero | W | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 15.10.2026 | Thiago Seyboth Wild | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 14.10.2026 | Gonzalo Villanueva | W | 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 |
| 29.09.2026 | Felipe Meligeni Alves | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 22.09.2026 | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | L | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 05.09.2026 | Lorenzo Gagliardo | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Gonzalo Bueno | Carlos Maria Zarate |
|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandez | 1-0 W 6-2, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
| Gonzalo Villanueva | 1-0 W 6-4, 5-7, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 |
| Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 1-0 W 6-2, 7-5 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-2 |
| Juan Bautista Torres | 2-1 W 5-2, W 6-1, 6-3, L 7-5, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-1, 7-6 |
| Juan Pablo Varillas | 1-0 W 6-0, 7-5 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-3 |
| Lautaro Midon | 1-1 W 5-7, 6-3, 6-1, L 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
| Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-1 |
1-1 L 6-2, 1-6, 6-4, W 6-2, 6-3 |
| Lucio Ratti | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-2 |
| Maximo Zeitune | 0-1 L 6-1, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-2, 7-6 |
| Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos | 0-1 L 6-2, 3-6, 6-4 |
0-2 L 7-6, 3-6, 7-6, L 6-4, 6-3 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-29: ATP Guayaquil (XI) (Ecuador), model gave Gonzalo Bueno 87% at -213
Gonzalo Bueno vs Carlos Maria Zarate: quick answers
Who will win Gonzalo Bueno vs Carlos Maria Zarate?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Gonzalo Bueno, giving them a 87% chance to win against Carlos Maria Zarate (13%).
What is the head-to-head record between Gonzalo Bueno and Carlos Maria Zarate?
Carlos Maria Zarate leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 29, 2026, won by Carlos Maria Zarate 3-6, 7-5, 7-5 at Ecuador Guayaquil.
Who is in better form, Gonzalo Bueno or Carlos Maria Zarate?
Gonzalo Bueno is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Carlos Maria Zarate is 5-5 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Gonzalo Bueno and Carlos Maria Zarate?
Gonzalo Bueno is rated 6662 (ATP #268) and Carlos Maria Zarate is rated 6470 (ATP #591). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Gonzalo Bueno vs Carlos Maria Zarate?
Gonzalo Bueno is priced at -213 and Carlos Maria Zarate at +149, which implies a 68% and 40% chance to win. The model rates Gonzalo Bueno 19 points higher than the odds do (87% vs 68%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.