Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz
Updated
Zizou Bergs beat Carlos Alcaraz 7-5, 7-6, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Carlos Alcaraz at 80%. Zizou Bergs leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Bergs is 5-5 in their last 10, Alcaraz 9-1.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz a 80% favorite. At +823 the sportsbook implies 11% for Zizou Bergs, 9 points below the model's 20%.
Model minus book: +9 pts
Model minus book: -13 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Zizou Bergs at +823 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Zizou Bergs | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6904 | 7005 |
| Tour rank | ATP #38 | ATP #2 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 9-1 |
| Last 30 days | 3-2 | 7-0 |
| Current streak | 2 Losses | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 32-28 | 40-7 |
| UTR | 15.68 | 16.41 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1794 | 2141 |
| Best surface | Grass | Clay |
| Worst surface | Clay | Grass |
Head to head
Zizou Bergs leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.10.2026 | Zizou Bergs | 7-5, 7-6 | China Shangai - Masters |
Recent form
Zizou Bergs, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Hubert Hurkacz | L | 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 23.10.2026 | Jan Lennard Struff | L | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 22.10.2026 | Damir Dzumhur | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Toby Samuel | W | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 14.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 12.10.2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | W | 7-5, 7-6 |
| 10.10.2026 | Ignacio Buse | W | 6-0, 6-3 |
| 08.10.2026 | Vit Kopriva | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 30.09.2026 | Jiri Lehecka | L | 6-3, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 19.09.2026 | Jurij Rodionov | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
Carlos Alcaraz, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | W | 6-1, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Karen Khachanov | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 12.10.2026 | Zizou Bergs | L | 7-5, 7-6 |
| 10.10.2026 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 06.10.2026 | Jiri Lehecka | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 05.10.2026 | Jaume Munar | W | 5-7, 6-3, 6-1 |
| 04.10.2026 | Denis Shapovalov | W | 7-6, 2-1 |
| 03.10.2026 | Matteo Arnaldi | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 01.10.2026 | Alex Michelsen | W | 7-6, 4-6, 6-1 |
| 26.09.2026 | Taylor Fritz | W | 6-3, 4-6, 13-11 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Zizou Bergs | Carlos Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev | 0-1 L 6-2, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-4, 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5 |
| Andrey Rublev | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-1 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 1-0 W 6-3, 7-6 |
2-0 W 6-7, 6-3, 6-2, W 6-4, 7-6 |
| Ben Shelton | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-7, 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6 |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
| Jaime Faria | 1-0 W 7-6, 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
1-0 W 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 |
| Jaume Munar | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
1-0 W 5-7, 6-3, 6-1 |
| Jiri Lehecka | 0-2 L 6-3, 6-7, 6-3, L 6-2, 6-1 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
| Sebastian Baez | 1-0 W 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-1, 6-3 |
| Taylor Fritz | 0-2 L 7-6, 6-3, L 7-6, 5-7, 6-4 |
2-0 W 6-3, 4-6, 13-11, W 6-7, 7-5, 6-3 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 0-1 L 7-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 |
| Tommy Paul | 0-2 L 7-6, 6-4, L 6-1, 6-2 |
2-0 W 6-4, 6-3, 6-4, W 7-6, 6-4, 7-5 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-11: ATP Shangai - Masters (China), model gave Zizou Bergs 20% at +823
Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz: quick answers
Who won Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz?
Zizou Bergs beat Carlos Alcaraz 7-5, 7-6, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Carlos Alcaraz at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zizou Bergs and Carlos Alcaraz?
Zizou Bergs leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 12, 2026, won by Zizou Bergs 7-5, 7-6 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Zizou Bergs or Carlos Alcaraz?
Zizou Bergs is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Losses). Carlos Alcaraz is 9-1 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Zizou Bergs and Carlos Alcaraz?
Zizou Bergs is rated 6904 (ATP #38) and Carlos Alcaraz is rated 7005 (ATP #2). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz?
Zizou Bergs is priced at +823 and Carlos Alcaraz at -1429, which implies a 11% and 93% chance to win. The model rates Zizou Bergs 9 points higher than the odds do (20% vs 11%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.