Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Carlos Alcaraz, giving them a 64% chance to win against Tommy Paul (36%). Carlos Alcaraz leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Paul is 6-4 in their last 10, Alcaraz 9-1. At +336, the odds imply 23% for Tommy Paul, below the model's 36%.
Prediction
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz a 64% favorite. At +336 the sportsbook implies 23% for Tommy Paul, 13 points below the model's 36%.
Model minus book: +13 pts
Model minus book: -18 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Tommy Paul at +336 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Tommy Paul | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6967 | 7005 |
| Tour rank | ATP #7 | ATP #2 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 9-1 |
| Last 30 days | 6-3 | 6-1 |
| Current streak | 2 Wins | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 47-22 | 40-7 |
| UTR | 15.97 | 16.41 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1948 | 2150 |
| Best surface | Clay | Clay |
| Worst surface | Hard | Grass |
Head to head
Carlos Alcaraz leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06.09.2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 | USA US Open |
| 25.01.2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6, 6-4, 7-5 | Australia Australian Open |
Recent form
Tommy Paul, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Luciano Darderi | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 27.10.2026 | Andrey Rublev | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 24.10.2026 | Taylor Fritz | L | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 23.10.2026 | Corentin Moutet | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Zizou Bergs | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 12.10.2026 | Valentin Vacherot | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 10.10.2026 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 30.09.2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | L | 6-1, 6-2 |
Carlos Alcaraz, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | W | 6-1, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Karen Khachanov | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 12.10.2026 | Zizou Bergs | L | 7-5, 7-6 |
| 10.10.2026 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 06.10.2026 | Jiri Lehecka | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 05.10.2026 | Jaume Munar | W | 5-7, 6-3, 6-1 |
| 04.10.2026 | Denis Shapovalov | W | 7-6, 2-1 |
| 03.10.2026 | Matteo Arnaldi | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 01.10.2026 | Alex Michelsen | W | 7-6, 4-6, 6-1 |
| 26.09.2026 | Taylor Fritz | W | 6-3, 4-6, 13-11 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Tommy Paul | Carlos Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Walton | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-3, 7-6, 6-2 |
| Alex De Minaur | 1-0 W 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-2, 6-1 |
| Alexander Bublik | 1-0 W 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-0 |
| Alexander Zverev | 1-0 W 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4, 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5 |
| Andrey Rublev | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-2 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
| Arthur Fils | 1-1 W 7-6, 6-1, L 6-7, 7-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-1 |
| Casper Ruud | 0-1 L 4-6, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-1, 7-6 |
| Corentin Moutet | 2-0 W 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, W 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-4, 6-1 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 0-2 L 6-3, 1-6, 6-3, L 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 7-6 |
| Frances Tiafoe | 1-0 W 7-5, 4-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-3, 3-6, 10-7 |
| Joao Fonseca | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-3 |
2-0 W 6-4, 6-4, W 7-5, 2-6, 10-8 |
| Novak Djokovic | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-7, 7-5 |
1-0 W 2-6, 6-2, 6-3, 7-5 |
| Sebastian Korda | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 |
| Taylor Fritz | 1-1 L 6-3, 7-5, W 6-4, 6-3 |
2-0 W 6-3, 4-6, 13-11, W 6-7, 7-5, 6-3 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 3-0 W 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, W 6-4, 6-2, W 6-1, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 |
| Valentin Royer | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-2, 7-5 |
| Valentin Vacherot | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Zizou Bergs | 2-0 W 7-6, 6-4, W 6-1, 6-2 |
0-1 L 7-5, 7-6 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-11-01: ATP Wien (Austria), model gave Tommy Paul 36% at +336
- 2026-10-31: ATP Wien (Austria), model gave Tommy Paul 36% at +336
- 2026-10-30: ATP Wien (Austria), model gave Tommy Paul 36% at +336
Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz: quick answers
Who will win Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Carlos Alcaraz, giving them a 64% chance to win against Tommy Paul (36%).
What is the head-to-head record between Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz?
Carlos Alcaraz leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on September 6, 2026, won by Carlos Alcaraz 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 at USA US Open.
Who is in better form, Tommy Paul or Carlos Alcaraz?
Tommy Paul is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Carlos Alcaraz is 9-1 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz?
Tommy Paul is rated 6967 (ATP #7) and Carlos Alcaraz is rated 7005 (ATP #2). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz?
Tommy Paul is priced at +336 and Carlos Alcaraz at -455, which implies a 23% and 82% chance to win. The model rates Tommy Paul 13 points higher than the odds do (36% vs 23%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.