Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Carlos Alcaraz, giving them a 93% chance to win against Nikoloz Basilashvili (7%). Carlos Alcaraz leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Basilashvili is 7-3 in their last 10, Alcaraz 9-1. At -667, the odds imply 87% for Carlos Alcaraz, below the model's 93%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz a 93% favorite. At -667 the sportsbook implies 87% for Carlos Alcaraz, 6 points below the model's 93%.
Model minus book: -11 pts
Model minus book: +6 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Carlos Alcaraz at -667 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6843 | 7005 |
| Tour rank | ATP #87 | ATP #2 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 9-1 |
| Last 30 days | 9-2 | 7-1 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 36-35 | 40-7 |
| UTR | 15.55 | 16.41 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1637 | 2150 |
| Best surface | Grass | Clay |
| Worst surface | Clay | Grass |
Head to head
Carlos Alcaraz leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1, 7-6 | Austria Wien |
Recent form
Nikoloz Basilashvili, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | L | 6-1, 7-6 |
| 28.10.2026 | Jurij Rodionov | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 25.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | W | 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 23.10.2026 | Adrian Mannarino | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 21.10.2026 | Facundo Diaz Acosta | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 19.10.2026 | Marin Cilic | W | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 18.10.2026 | Adam Walton | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 17.10.2026 | Taro Daniel | W | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 07.10.2026 | Adrian Mannarino | L | 6-3, 2-2 |
Carlos Alcaraz, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | W | 6-1, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Karen Khachanov | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 12.10.2026 | Zizou Bergs | L | 7-5, 7-6 |
| 10.10.2026 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 06.10.2026 | Jiri Lehecka | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 05.10.2026 | Jaume Munar | W | 5-7, 6-3, 6-1 |
| 04.10.2026 | Denis Shapovalov | W | 7-6, 2-1 |
| 03.10.2026 | Matteo Arnaldi | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 01.10.2026 | Alex Michelsen | W | 7-6, 4-6, 6-1 |
| 26.09.2026 | Taylor Fritz | W | 6-3, 4-6, 13-11 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Nikoloz Basilashvili | Carlos Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Walton | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-3, 7-6, 6-2 |
| Andrey Rublev | 0-1 L 3-6, 7-6, 6-2 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 0-1 L 7-5, 6-4 |
2-0 W 6-7, 6-3, 6-2, W 6-4, 7-6 |
| Ben Shelton | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-7, 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6 |
| Corentin Moutet | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-4, 6-1 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 0-1 L 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 7-6 |
| Jaime Faria | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-29: ATP Wien (Austria), model gave Nikoloz Basilashvili 7% at +440
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz: quick answers
Who will win Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Carlos Alcaraz, giving them a 93% chance to win against Nikoloz Basilashvili (7%).
What is the head-to-head record between Nikoloz Basilashvili and Carlos Alcaraz?
Carlos Alcaraz leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 29, 2026, won by Carlos Alcaraz 6-1, 7-6 at Austria Wien.
Who is in better form, Nikoloz Basilashvili or Carlos Alcaraz?
Nikoloz Basilashvili is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Carlos Alcaraz is 9-1 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Nikoloz Basilashvili and Carlos Alcaraz?
Nikoloz Basilashvili is rated 6843 (ATP #87) and Carlos Alcaraz is rated 7005 (ATP #2). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz?
Nikoloz Basilashvili is priced at +440 and Carlos Alcaraz at -667, which implies a 19% and 87% chance to win. The model rates Carlos Alcaraz 6 points higher than the odds do (93% vs 87%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.