Carles Hernandez vs Mathys Picard
Updated
Mathys Picard beat Carles Hernandez 6-3, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Carles Hernandez at 53%. Mathys Picard leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Hernandez is 5-5 in their last 10, Picard 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Carles Hernandez a 53% favorite. At +180 the sportsbook implies 36% for Mathys Picard, 11 points below the model's 47%.
Model minus book: -21 pts
Model minus book: +11 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Mathys Picard at +180 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Carles Hernandez | Mathys Picard | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6391 | 6312 |
| Tour rank | ATP #813 | ATP #1112 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 2 Losses |
| Season record | 36-27 | 30-20 |
| UTR | 13.46 | 13.26 |
Head to head
Mathys Picard leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Mathys Picard | 6-3, 6-4 | Tunisia Monastir |
Recent form
Carles Hernandez, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Robin Bertrand | L | 7-5, 6-1 |
| 20.10.2026 | Anas Mazdrashki | W | 1-6, 7-6, 4-1 |
| 20.10.2026 | Anas Mazdrashki | W | 1-6, 7-6, 4-1 |
| 15.10.2026 | Mathys Picard | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Kylian Collignon | W | 7-6, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 06.10.2026 | Petr Nesterov | L | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 02.10.2026 | Lars Goran Verwerft | L | 2-6, 6-4, 6-0 |
| 01.10.2026 | Samir Hamza Reguig | W | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 30.09.2026 | Tanapatt Nirundorn | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 24.09.2026 | Daniel Domingos | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
Mathys Picard, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.10.2026 | Leo Borg | L | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Leo Borg | L | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 15.10.2026 | Carles Hernandez | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Alvaro Peiro Serrano | W | 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| 09.10.2026 | Kris Van Wyk | L | 6-7, 6-3, 7-6 |
| 08.10.2026 | Viktor Frydrych | W | 6-0, 6-3 |
| 06.10.2026 | Maxime Chazal | W | 5-2 |
| 16.09.2026 | Daniel Domingos | L | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 06.09.2026 | Noah Boutleux | L | 4-6, 6-1, 1-0 |
| 05.09.2026 | Sacha Grandvincent | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Carles Hernandez | Mathys Picard |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Domingos | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-3 |
| Noah Lopez Cherubino | 1-0 W 6-1, 4-6, 7-5 |
1-0 W 1-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-14: ATP Monastir (X) II (Tunisia), model gave Carles Hernandez 53% at -286
Carles Hernandez vs Mathys Picard: quick answers
Who won Carles Hernandez vs Mathys Picard?
Mathys Picard beat Carles Hernandez 6-3, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Carles Hernandez at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carles Hernandez and Mathys Picard?
Mathys Picard leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 15, 2026, won by Mathys Picard 6-3, 6-4 at Tunisia Monastir.
Who is in better form, Carles Hernandez or Mathys Picard?
Carles Hernandez is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Mathys Picard is 5-5 (current streak: 2 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Carles Hernandez and Mathys Picard?
Carles Hernandez is rated 6391 (ATP #813) and Mathys Picard is rated 6312 (ATP #1112). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Carles Hernandez vs Mathys Picard?
Carles Hernandez is priced at -286 and Mathys Picard at +180, which implies a 74% and 36% chance to win. The model rates Mathys Picard 11 points higher than the odds do (47% vs 36%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.