Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Ilia Simakin
Updated
Camilo Ugo Carabelli beat Ilia Simakin 2-6, 6-2, 7-5, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Carabelli is 4-6 in their last 10, Simakin 7-3.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Camilo Ugo Carabelli a 66% favorite. At +187 the sportsbook implies 35% for Camilo Ugo Carabelli, 31 points below the model's 66%.
Model minus book: +31 pts
Model minus book: -36 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Camilo Ugo Carabelli at +187 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6850 | 6623 |
| Tour rank | ATP #84 | ATP #318 |
| Last 10 matches | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 0-2 | 12-0 |
| Current streak | 2 Wins | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 24-26 | 51-23 |
| UTR | 15.27 | 14.35 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1698 | 1618 |
| Best surface | Clay | Hard |
| Worst surface | Grass | Clay |
Head to head
Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08.10.2026 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 2-6, 6-2, 7-5 | China Shangai - Masters |
Recent form
Camilo Ugo Carabelli, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano | W | 2-0 |
| 27.10.2026 | Federico Coria | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 10.10.2026 | Felix Auger Aliassime | L | 4-6, 7-6, 7-5 |
| 08.10.2026 | Ilia Simakin | W | 2-6, 6-2, 7-5 |
| 28.09.2026 | Rinky Hijikata | L | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 24.09.2026 | Federico Cina | L | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 01.09.2026 | Jan Lennard Struff | L | 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 |
| 21.08.2026 | Moez Echargui | L | 6-2, 5-0 |
| 20.08.2026 | Nicolas Mejia | W | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 13.08.2026 | Miomir Kecmanovic | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
Ilia Simakin, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10.2026 | Roman Safiullin | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 17.10.2026 | Lukas Palovic | W | 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 |
| 13.10.2026 | Martin Landaluce | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 08.10.2026 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | L | 2-6, 6-2, 7-5 |
| 06.10.2026 | Rigele Te | W | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 05.10.2026 | Luka Pavlovic | W | 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 |
| 20.09.2026 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | W | 6-7, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 19.09.2026 | Hunter Heck | W | 6-7, 7-5, 6-2 |
| 18.09.2026 | Cruz Hewitt | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 17.09.2026 | Blake Ellis | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Ilia Simakin |
|---|---|---|
| Federico Cina | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Marko Topo | 1-0 W 6-7, 7-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 |
Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Ilia Simakin: quick answers
Who won Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Ilia Simakin?
Camilo Ugo Carabelli beat Ilia Simakin 2-6, 6-2, 7-5, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Ilia Simakin?
Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 8, 2026, won by Camilo Ugo Carabelli 2-6, 6-2, 7-5 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Camilo Ugo Carabelli or Ilia Simakin?
Camilo Ugo Carabelli is 4-6 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Ilia Simakin is 7-3 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Ilia Simakin?
Camilo Ugo Carabelli is rated 6850 (ATP #84) and Ilia Simakin is rated 6623 (ATP #318). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Ilia Simakin?
Camilo Ugo Carabelli is priced at +187 and Ilia Simakin at -233, which implies a 35% and 70% chance to win. The model rates Camilo Ugo Carabelli 31 points higher than the odds do (66% vs 35%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.