Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Daniil Medvedev, giving them a 75% chance to win against Cameron Norrie (25%). Daniil Medvedev leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Norrie is 3-7 in their last 10, Medvedev 9-1. At +388, the odds imply 20% for Cameron Norrie, below the model's 25%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Daniil Medvedev a 75% favorite. At +388 the sportsbook implies 20% for Cameron Norrie, 5 points below the model's 25%.
Model minus book: +5 pts
Model minus book: -9 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Cameron Norrie at +388 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Cameron Norrie | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6895 | 6965 |
| Tour rank | ATP #46 | ATP #9 |
| Last 10 matches | 3-7 | 9-1 |
| Last 30 days | 1-3 | 13-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 6 Wins |
| Season record | 24-26 | 53-19 |
| UTR | 15.73 | 15.97 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1819 | 1980 |
| Best surface | Clay | Hard |
| Worst surface | Grass | Clay |
Head to head
Daniil Medvedev leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 | Austria Wien |
Recent form
Cameron Norrie, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Francisco Cerundolo | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 20.10.2026 | Benjamin Bonzi | L | 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 08.10.2026 | Dalibor Svrcina | L | 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 01.10.2026 | Alexander Zverev | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 30.08.2026 | Luca Van Assche | L | 6-7, 6-2, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 16.08.2026 | Alexander Zverev | L | 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
| 13.08.2026 | Dino Prizmic | W | 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
| 09.08.2026 | Arthur Fils | L | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 06.08.2026 | Alex De Minaur | W | 5-7, 7-6, 6-1 |
Daniil Medvedev, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Cameron Norrie | W | 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
| 28.10.2026 | Daniel Merida Aguilar | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 25.10.2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | W | 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Alexander Bublik | W | 6-3 |
| 23.10.2026 | Terence Atmane | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 22.10.2026 | Sho Shimabukuro | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 17.10.2026 | Rafael Jodar | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | W | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | W | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | W | 6-4, 7-5 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Cameron Norrie | Daniil Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Michelsen | 0-1 L 7-5, 6-7, 6-4 |
2-0 W 6-2, 6-4, W 6-4, 6-2 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 7-6 |
| Dalibor Svrcina | 0-1 L 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-3 |
| Denis Shapovalov | 0-1 L 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 1-1 W 6-4, 6-1, L 16-12, 15-12, 17-8 |
1-1 W 7-6, 6-3, L 6-0, 4-6, 7-5 |
| Hugo Gaston | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 |
| Jannik Sinner | 0-2 L 6-3, 6-3, L 6-2, 7-5 |
0-2 L 6-2, 5-7, 6-4, L 7-6, 7-6 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
| Rafael Jodar | 0-2 L 6-3, 6-2, L 6-3, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
| Stan Wawrinka | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-7, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-3 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | 1-1 L 6-3, 7-5, W 7-5, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
| Ugo Humbert | 1-0 W 1-6, 7-6, 7-5 |
0-1 L 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-29: ATP Wien (Austria), model gave Cameron Norrie 25% at +388
Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev: quick answers
Who will win Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Daniil Medvedev, giving them a 75% chance to win against Cameron Norrie (25%).
What is the head-to-head record between Cameron Norrie and Daniil Medvedev?
Daniil Medvedev leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 29, 2026, won by Daniil Medvedev 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 at Austria Wien.
Who is in better form, Cameron Norrie or Daniil Medvedev?
Cameron Norrie is 3-7 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Daniil Medvedev is 9-1 (current streak: 6 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Cameron Norrie and Daniil Medvedev?
Cameron Norrie is rated 6895 (ATP #46) and Daniil Medvedev is rated 6965 (ATP #9). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev?
Cameron Norrie is priced at +388 and Daniil Medvedev at -526, which implies a 20% and 84% chance to win. The model rates Cameron Norrie 5 points higher than the odds do (25% vs 20%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.