Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima
Updated
Brandon Nakashima beat Matteo Berrettini 7-6, 7-5, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Brandon Nakashima leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Berrettini is 5-5 in their last 10, Nakashima 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Brandon Nakashima a 80% favorite. At -152 the sportsbook implies 60% for Brandon Nakashima, 20 points below the model's 80%.
Model minus book: -26 pts
Model minus book: +20 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Brandon Nakashima at -152 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Matteo Berrettini | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6903 | 6935 |
| Tour rank | ATP #40 | ATP #21 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Current streak | 2 Wins | 2 Losses |
| Season record | 27-20 | 38-23 |
| UTR | 15.8 | 16.04 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1824 | 1918 |
| Best surface | Grass | Hard |
| Worst surface | Hard | Clay |
Head to head
Brandon Nakashima leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09.10.2026 | Brandon Nakashima | 7-6, 7-5 | China Shangai - Masters |
Recent form
Matteo Berrettini, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Flavio Cobolli | W | 5-2 |
| 26.10.2026 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Kyrian Jacquet | L | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 09.10.2026 | Brandon Nakashima | L | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 07.10.2026 | Aleksandar Kovacevic | W | 6-7, 6-1, 6-4 |
| 03.10.2026 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 01.10.2026 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W | 1-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 03.09.2026 | Mariano Navone | L | 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6 |
| 31.08.2026 | Stan Wawrinka | W | 7-6, 7-6, 6-0 |
| 16.08.2026 | Jiri Lehecka | L | 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
Brandon Nakashima, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Tallon Griekspoor | L | 6-1, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 23.10.2026 | Flavio Cobolli | L | 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 22.10.2026 | Kyrian Jacquet | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 20.10.2026 | Hamad Medjedovic | W | 7-6, 6-7, 6-2 |
| 11.10.2026 | Alexander Bublik | L | 6-7, 6-3, 7-6 |
| 09.10.2026 | Matteo Berrettini | W | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 01.10.2026 | Ugo Humbert | L | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 25.09.2026 | Jakub Mensik | W | 6-1, 3-6, 10-7 |
| 02.09.2026 | Alex Michelsen | L | 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 31.08.2026 | Sebastian Baez | W | 6-2, 6-1, 6-0 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Matteo Berrettini | Brandon Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1-0 W 1-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | 1-0 W 6-7, 6-1, 6-4 |
2-0 W 6-2, 7-5, W 7-6, 6-4 |
| Alexander Bublik | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-7, 6-3, 7-6 |
| Alexander Zverev | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-6, 5-7, 6-4 |
| Arthur Fils | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-5, 3-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-2, 6-3 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-6, 5-7, 7-5 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 1-0 W 6-0, 6-0 |
1-1 W 6-7, 7-6, 6-1, L 6-2, 7-6 |
| Flavio Cobolli | 1-0 W 5-2 |
0-1 L 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Ignacio Buse | 0-2 L 7-6, 6-7, 6-4, L 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-2 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 1-0 W 6-3, 7-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-3, 7-5 |
| Kyrian Jacquet | 0-1 L 7-6, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-3 |
| Marton Fucsovics | 1-0 W 6-7, 7-5, 6-1, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
| Patrick Kypson | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-7, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Raphael Collignon | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
| Roberto Bautista Agut | 1-0 W 4-0 |
2-0 W 6-2, 7-5, 6-2, W 6-4, 6-0 |
| Titouan Droguet | 1-0 W 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
1-0 W 4-6, 6-2, 7-5 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
| Valentin Vacherot | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 2-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima: quick answers
Who won Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima?
Brandon Nakashima beat Matteo Berrettini 7-6, 7-5, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Matteo Berrettini and Brandon Nakashima?
Brandon Nakashima leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 9, 2026, won by Brandon Nakashima 7-6, 7-5 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Matteo Berrettini or Brandon Nakashima?
Matteo Berrettini is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Brandon Nakashima is 5-5 (current streak: 2 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Matteo Berrettini and Brandon Nakashima?
Matteo Berrettini is rated 6903 (ATP #40) and Brandon Nakashima is rated 6935 (ATP #21). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima?
Matteo Berrettini is priced at +120 and Brandon Nakashima at -152, which implies a 45% and 60% chance to win. The model rates Brandon Nakashima 20 points higher than the odds do (80% vs 60%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.