Bernard Tomic vs Matteo Arnaldi
Updated
Matteo Arnaldi beat Bernard Tomic 6-3, 6-1, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Matteo Arnaldi leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Tomic is 7-3 in their last 10, Arnaldi 3-7.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi a 89% favorite. At -233 the sportsbook implies 70% for Matteo Arnaldi, 19 points below the model's 89%.
Model minus book: -24 pts
Model minus book: +19 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Matteo Arnaldi at -233 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Bernard Tomic | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6655 | 6859 |
| Tour rank | ATP #272 | ATP #76 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Last 30 days | 9-4 | 1-1 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 3 Losses |
| Season record | 36-27 | 20-20 |
| UTR | 14.38 | 15.77 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1531 | 1755 |
| Best surface | Grass | Clay |
| Worst surface | Clay | Grass |
Head to head
Matteo Arnaldi leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08.10.2026 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3, 6-1 | China Shangai - Masters |
Recent form
Bernard Tomic, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08.10.2026 | Matteo Arnaldi | L | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 06.10.2026 | Timofey Skatov | W | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 05.10.2026 | Terence Atmane | W | 6-3, 4-6, 5-3 |
| 01.10.2026 | Yuta Shimizu | W | 5-7, 6-2, 7-6 |
| 29.09.2026 | Fajing Sun | W | 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 23.09.2026 | Fajing Sun | L | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 22.09.2026 | Rigele Te | W | 6-7, 6-4, 7-5 |
| 19.09.2026 | Pavel Kotov | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 18.09.2026 | Alexandr Binda | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 17.09.2026 | Jake Delaney | W | 6-3, 6-2 |
Matteo Arnaldi, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Luciano Darderi | L | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 19.10.2026 | Lorenzo Musetti | L | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 10.10.2026 | Taylor Fritz | L | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 08.10.2026 | Bernard Tomic | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 03.10.2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 30.09.2026 | Rei Sakamoto | W | 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 31.08.2026 | James Duckworth | L | 5-7, 6-3, 6-2, 7-6 |
| 15.08.2026 | Martin Landaluce | L | 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 |
| 07.08.2026 | Tallon Griekspoor | L | 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 05.08.2026 | Fabian Marozsan | W | 7-5, 2-6, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Bernard Tomic vs Matteo Arnaldi: quick answers
Who won Bernard Tomic vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Matteo Arnaldi beat Bernard Tomic 6-3, 6-1, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Bernard Tomic and Matteo Arnaldi?
Matteo Arnaldi leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 8, 2026, won by Matteo Arnaldi 6-3, 6-1 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Bernard Tomic or Matteo Arnaldi?
Bernard Tomic is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Matteo Arnaldi is 3-7 (current streak: 3 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Bernard Tomic and Matteo Arnaldi?
Bernard Tomic is rated 6655 (ATP #272) and Matteo Arnaldi is rated 6859 (ATP #76). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Bernard Tomic vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Bernard Tomic is priced at +180 and Matteo Arnaldi at -233, which implies a 36% and 70% chance to win. The model rates Matteo Arnaldi 19 points higher than the odds do (89% vs 70%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.