Luca Nardi vs August Holmgren
Updated
Luca Nardi beat August Holmgren 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored August Holmgren at 57%. Luca Nardi leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Nardi is 4-6 in their last 10, Holmgren 2-8.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes August Holmgren a 57% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -5 pts
Model minus book: -3 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of August Holmgren at -147 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Luca Nardi | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6695 | 6689 |
| Tour rank | ATP #224 | ATP #230 |
| Last 10 matches | 4-6 | 2-8 |
| Last 30 days | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 4 Losses |
| Season record | 19-23 | 29-32 |
| UTR | 14.54 | 14.48 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1560 | 1520 |
| Best surface | Hard | Grass |
| Worst surface | Grass | Clay |
Head to head
Luca Nardi leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.2026 | Luca Nardi | 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 | Italy Olbia |
Recent form
Luca Nardi, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10.2026 | Jacob Fearnley | L | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Michael Mmoh | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Lorenzo Carboni | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 13.10.2026 | August Holmgren | W | 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 05.10.2026 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | L | 6-1, 7-6 |
| 25.08.2026 | Federico Cina | L | 6-4, 3-0 |
| 11.07.2026 | Andrea Guerrieri | L | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 24.06.2026 | Otto Virtanen | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 22.06.2026 | Rio Noguchi | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 15.06.2026 | Remy Bertola | L | 3-6, 7-6, 7-6 |
August Holmgren, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Jay Dylan Hara Friend | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 13.10.2026 | Luca Nardi | L | 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 06.10.2026 | Pedro Martinez | L | 2-6, 7-6, 7-5 |
| 02.10.2026 | Henrique Rocha | L | 6-3, 7-6 |
| 01.10.2026 | Andrea Guerrieri | W | 7-5, 6-1 |
| 28.09.2026 | Benjamin Bonzi | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 07.9.2026 | Vadym Ursu | L | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 01.09.2026 | Felix Balshaw | L | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 24.08.2026 | Andrea Guerrieri | L | 6-3, 6-7, 6-2 |
| 29.07.2026 | Braden Shick | L | 6-7, 6-3, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Luca Nardi | August Holmgren |
|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Vukic | 0-1 L 6-7, 6-3, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Andrea Guerrieri | 0-1 L 6-3, 7-6 |
1-1 W 7-5, 6-1, L 6-3, 6-7, 6-2 |
| Chris Rodesch | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
| Jerome Kym | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-3 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-0 |
1-0 W 6-0, 7-6 |
| Otto Virtanen | 1-1 L 6-4, 6-4, W 7-6, 6-2 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-2 |
| Remy Bertola | 0-2 L 3-6, 7-6, 7-6, L 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 7-6, 7-6 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-12: ATP Olbia (X) (Italy), model gave Luca Nardi 43% at +105
Luca Nardi vs August Holmgren: quick answers
Who won Luca Nardi vs August Holmgren?
Luca Nardi beat August Holmgren 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored August Holmgren at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Luca Nardi and August Holmgren?
Luca Nardi leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 13, 2026, won by Luca Nardi 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 at Italy Olbia.
Who is in better form, Luca Nardi or August Holmgren?
Luca Nardi is 4-6 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). August Holmgren is 2-8 (current streak: 4 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Luca Nardi and August Holmgren?
Luca Nardi is rated 6695 (ATP #224) and August Holmgren is rated 6689 (ATP #230). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Luca Nardi vs August Holmgren?
Luca Nardi is priced at +105 and August Holmgren at -147, which implies a 49% and 60% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.