Matt Ponchet vs Arthur Nagel
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Arthur Nagel, giving them a 60% chance to win against Matt Ponchet (40%). Arthur Nagel leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Ponchet is 4-6 in their last 10, Nagel 8-2. At +339, the odds imply 23% for Matt Ponchet, below the model's 40%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Arthur Nagel a 60% favorite. At +339 the sportsbook implies 23% for Matt Ponchet, 17 points below the model's 40%.
Model minus book: +17 pts
Model minus book: -27 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Matt Ponchet at +339 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Matt Ponchet | Arthur Nagel | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6375 | 6494 |
| Tour rank | ATP #872 | ATP #533 |
| Last 10 matches | 4-6 | 8-2 |
| Last 30 days | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Current streak | 1 Win | 5 Wins |
| Season record | 16-21 | 52-27 |
| UTR | 13.1 | 13.77 |
Head to head
Arthur Nagel leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Arthur Nagel | 7-6, 6-4 | France Sarreguemines |
Recent form
Matt Ponchet, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Martin Krumich | W | 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 28.10.2026 | Paul Jubb | L | 5-7, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Stijn Pel | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 22.10.2026 | Arthur Nagel | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Theo Herrmann | W | 7-5, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 08.09.2026 | Mickael Kaouk | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 23.08.2026 | Inaki Montes De La Torre | L | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 16.08.2026 | Marcus Walters | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
| 31.07.2026 | Conor Gannon | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 30.07.2026 | Ammar Elamin | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
Arthur Nagel, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25.10.2026 | Philip Henning | W | 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Maximilian Marterer | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 23.10.2026 | Calvin Mueller | W | 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 22.10.2026 | Matt Ponchet | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 21.10.2026 | Aaron Gabet | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 11.10.2026 | Loann Massard | L | 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 |
| 26.09.2026 | Flynn Thomas | L | 3-6, 7-5, 6-1 |
| 25.09.2026 | Timeo Trufelli | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 24.09.2026 | Paul Theate | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 23.09.2026 | Remy Dugardin | W | 6-2, 3-6, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Matt Ponchet | Arthur Nagel |
|---|---|---|
| Axel Garcian | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-3 |
| Loann Massard | 1-0 W 6-1, 3-6, 7-6 |
1-1 L 4-6, 6-4, 7-6, W 0-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-27: ATP Sarreguemines (France), model gave Matt Ponchet 40% at +339
- 2026-10-26: ATP Sarreguemines (France), model gave Matt Ponchet 40% at +339
- 2026-10-25: ATP Sarreguemines (France), model gave Matt Ponchet 40% at +339
- 2026-10-24: ATP Sarreguemines (France), model gave Matt Ponchet 40% at +339
- 2026-10-23: ATP Sarreguemines (France), model gave Matt Ponchet 40% at +339
- 2026-10-22: ATP Sarreguemines (France), model gave Matt Ponchet 40% at +339
- 2026-10-21: ATP Sarreguemines (France), model gave Matt Ponchet 40% at +339
Matt Ponchet vs Arthur Nagel: quick answers
Who will win Matt Ponchet vs Arthur Nagel?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Arthur Nagel, giving them a 60% chance to win against Matt Ponchet (40%).
What is the head-to-head record between Matt Ponchet and Arthur Nagel?
Arthur Nagel leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 22, 2026, won by Arthur Nagel 7-6, 6-4 at France Sarreguemines.
Who is in better form, Matt Ponchet or Arthur Nagel?
Matt Ponchet is 4-6 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Win). Arthur Nagel is 8-2 (current streak: 5 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Matt Ponchet and Arthur Nagel?
Matt Ponchet is rated 6375 (ATP #872) and Arthur Nagel is rated 6494 (ATP #533). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Matt Ponchet vs Arthur Nagel?
Matt Ponchet is priced at +339 and Arthur Nagel at -667, which implies a 23% and 87% chance to win. The model rates Matt Ponchet 17 points higher than the odds do (40% vs 23%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.