Ariana Geerlings vs Lucia Cortez Llorca
Updated
Ariana Geerlings beat Lucia Cortez Llorca 6-4, 6-2, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Lucia Cortez Llorca at 63%. They are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head. Geerlings is 7-3 in their last 10, Llorca 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Lucia Cortez Llorca a 63% favorite. At +177 the sportsbook implies 36% for Lucia Cortez Llorca, 27 points below the model's 63%.
Model minus book: -36 pts
Model minus book: +27 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Lucia Cortez Llorca at +177 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Ariana Geerlings | Lucia Cortez Llorca | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6680 | 6605 |
| Tour rank | WTA #303 | WTA #390 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Current streak | 6 Wins | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 30-5 | 48-25 |
| UTR | 11.46 | 11.39 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | – | 1278 |
| Best surface | – | Clay |
| Worst surface | – | Hard |
Head to head
Tied 1-1.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.2026 | Ariana Geerlings | 6-4, 6-2 | Spain Mallorca |
| 13.09.2026 | Lucia Cortez Llorca | 6-7, 6-4, 6-1 | Spain Reus |
Recent form
Ariana Geerlings, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10.2026 | Laura Samson | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 17.10.2026 | Francesca Curmi | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Julia Grabher | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Julia Grabher | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Lucia Cortez Llorca | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 13.10.2026 | Tea Kovacevic | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 07.10.2026 | Aurora Zantedeschi | L | 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 |
| 06.10.2026 | Laura Boehner | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 15.09.2026 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo | L | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 13.09.2026 | Lucia Cortez Llorca | L | 6-7, 6-4, 6-1 |
Lucia Cortez Llorca, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.10.2026 | Jennifer Ruggeri | L | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 22.10.2026 | Carlota Martinez Cirez | W | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 21.10.2026 | Tena Lukas | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Ariana Geerlings | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 13.10.2026 | Ekaterine Gorgodze | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 08.10.2026 | Caijsa Wilda Hennemann | L | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 07.10.2026 | Angelica Sara | W | 6-2, 6-0 |
| 06.10.2026 | Meritxell Teixido Garcia | W | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 23.09.2026 | Kira Pavlova | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 15.09.2026 | Alicia Herrero Linana | L | 2-6, 7-5, 7-5 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Ariana Geerlings | Lucia Cortez Llorca |
|---|---|---|
| Marianna Argyrokastriti | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
2-0 W 6-2, 6-1, W 6-2, 4-6, 6-1 |
| Rebecca Munk Mortensen | 1-0 W 6-0, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-1 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-13: WTA Mallorca (Spain), model gave Ariana Geerlings 37% at -263
Ariana Geerlings vs Lucia Cortez Llorca: quick answers
Who won Ariana Geerlings vs Lucia Cortez Llorca?
Ariana Geerlings beat Lucia Cortez Llorca 6-4, 6-2, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Lucia Cortez Llorca at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ariana Geerlings and Lucia Cortez Llorca?
They are tied 1-1. Their most recent meeting was on October 14, 2026, won by Ariana Geerlings 6-4, 6-2 at Spain Mallorca.
Who is in better form, Ariana Geerlings or Lucia Cortez Llorca?
Ariana Geerlings is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 6 Wins). Lucia Cortez Llorca is 5-5 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Ariana Geerlings and Lucia Cortez Llorca?
Ariana Geerlings is rated 6680 (WTA #303) and Lucia Cortez Llorca is rated 6605 (WTA #390). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Ariana Geerlings vs Lucia Cortez Llorca?
Ariana Geerlings is priced at -263 and Lucia Cortez Llorca at +177, which implies a 72% and 36% chance to win. The model rates Lucia Cortez Llorca 27 points higher than the odds do (63% vs 36%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.