Ariana Geerlings vs Laura Samson
Updated
Ariana Geerlings beat Laura Samson 6-2, 6-2, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Laura Samson at 89%. Ariana Geerlings leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Geerlings is 7-3 in their last 10, Samson 6-4.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Laura Samson a 89% favorite. At -213 the sportsbook implies 68% for Laura Samson, 21 points below the model's 89%.
Model minus book: -29 pts
Model minus book: +21 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Laura Samson at -213 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Ariana Geerlings | Laura Samson | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6680 | 6837 |
| Tour rank | WTA #303 | WTA #166 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 6-1 | 4-2 |
| Current streak | 6 Wins | 2 Losses |
| Season record | 30-5 | 37-22 |
| UTR | 11.46 | 11.94 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | – | 1642 |
| Best surface | – | Clay |
| Worst surface | – | Hard |
Head to head
Ariana Geerlings leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10.2026 | Ariana Geerlings | 6-2, 6-2 | Spain Mallorca |
Recent form
Ariana Geerlings, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10.2026 | Laura Samson | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 17.10.2026 | Francesca Curmi | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Julia Grabher | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Julia Grabher | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Lucia Cortez Llorca | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 13.10.2026 | Tea Kovacevic | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 07.10.2026 | Aurora Zantedeschi | L | 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 |
| 06.10.2026 | Laura Boehner | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 15.09.2026 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo | L | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 13.09.2026 | Lucia Cortez Llorca | L | 6-7, 6-4, 6-1 |
Laura Samson, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Alice Tubello | L | 6-0, 6-4 |
| 18.10.2026 | Ariana Geerlings | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 17.10.2026 | Tamara Zidansek | W | 6-1, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Andrea Lazaro Garcia | W | 6-0 |
| 15.10.2026 | Lucie Nguyen Tan | W | 6-0, 6-3 |
| 12.10.2026 | Maria Aran Teixido Garcia | W | 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 |
| 21.09.2026 | Noemi Basiletti | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 19.09.2026 | Samira De Stefano | L | 6-3, 1-6, 6-4 |
| 18.09.2026 | Anastasiya Soboleva | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 16.09.2026 | Weronika Falkowska | W | 6-7, 6-0, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-17: WTA Mallorca (Spain), model gave Ariana Geerlings 11% at +150
Ariana Geerlings vs Laura Samson: quick answers
Who won Ariana Geerlings vs Laura Samson?
Ariana Geerlings beat Laura Samson 6-2, 6-2, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Laura Samson at 89%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ariana Geerlings and Laura Samson?
Ariana Geerlings leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 18, 2026, won by Ariana Geerlings 6-2, 6-2 at Spain Mallorca.
Who is in better form, Ariana Geerlings or Laura Samson?
Ariana Geerlings is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 6 Wins). Laura Samson is 6-4 (current streak: 2 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Ariana Geerlings and Laura Samson?
Ariana Geerlings is rated 6680 (WTA #303) and Laura Samson is rated 6837 (WTA #166). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Ariana Geerlings vs Laura Samson?
Ariana Geerlings is priced at +150 and Laura Samson at -213, which implies a 40% and 68% chance to win. The model rates Laura Samson 21 points higher than the odds do (89% vs 68%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.