Julia Grabher vs Ariana Geerlings
Updated
Ariana Geerlings beat Julia Grabher 7-6, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Julia Grabher at 87%. Ariana Geerlings leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Grabher is 7-3 in their last 10, Geerlings 7-3.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Julia Grabher a 87% favorite. At -182 the sportsbook implies 65% for Julia Grabher, 22 points below the model's 87%.
Model minus book: +22 pts
Model minus book: -29 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Julia Grabher at -182 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Julia Grabher | Ariana Geerlings | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6836 | 6680 |
| Tour rank | WTA #168 | WTA #303 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 7-1 | 3-1 |
| Current streak | 2 Wins | 6 Wins |
| Season record | 33-26 | 30-5 |
| UTR | 11.96 | 11.46 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1660 | – |
| Best surface | Clay | – |
| Worst surface | Grass | – |
Head to head
Ariana Geerlings leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.10.2026 | Ariana Geerlings | 7-6, 6-3 | Spain Mallorca |
| 16.10.2026 | Ariana Geerlings | 7-6, 6-3 | Spain Mallorca |
Recent form
Julia Grabher, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Maria Lourdes Carle | W | 7-5, 7-5 |
| 27.10.2026 | Carolina Alves | W | 7-5, 7-6 |
| 16.10.2026 | Ariana Geerlings | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Ariana Geerlings | L | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Lidia Encheva | W | 4-6, 7-5, 6-4 |
| 12.10.2026 | Deborah Chiesa | W | 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 05.10.2026 | Dalma Galfi | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 27.09.2026 | Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales | W | 7-6, 6-2 |
| 26.09.2026 | Oksana Selekhmeteva | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 25.09.2026 | Nuria Brancaccio | W | 2-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
Ariana Geerlings, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10.2026 | Laura Samson | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 17.10.2026 | Francesca Curmi | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Julia Grabher | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Julia Grabher | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Lucia Cortez Llorca | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 13.10.2026 | Tea Kovacevic | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 07.10.2026 | Aurora Zantedeschi | L | 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 |
| 06.10.2026 | Laura Boehner | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 15.09.2026 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo | L | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 13.09.2026 | Lucia Cortez Llorca | L | 6-7, 6-4, 6-1 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Julia Grabher | Ariana Geerlings |
|---|---|---|
| Chloe Paquet | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-2, 7-6 |
| Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-0 |
1-0 W 4-6, 6-2, 6-4 |
| Justina Mikulskyte | 1-0 W 6-0, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-1, 1-6, 6-3 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-15: WTA Mallorca (Spain), model gave Julia Grabher 87% at -182
Julia Grabher vs Ariana Geerlings: quick answers
Who won Julia Grabher vs Ariana Geerlings?
Ariana Geerlings beat Julia Grabher 7-6, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Julia Grabher at 87%.
What is the head-to-head record between Julia Grabher and Ariana Geerlings?
Ariana Geerlings leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 16, 2026, won by Ariana Geerlings 7-6, 6-3 at Spain Mallorca.
Who is in better form, Julia Grabher or Ariana Geerlings?
Julia Grabher is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Ariana Geerlings is 7-3 (current streak: 6 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Julia Grabher and Ariana Geerlings?
Julia Grabher is rated 6836 (WTA #168) and Ariana Geerlings is rated 6680 (WTA #303). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Julia Grabher vs Ariana Geerlings?
Julia Grabher is priced at -182 and Ariana Geerlings at +135, which implies a 65% and 43% chance to win. The model rates Julia Grabher 22 points higher than the odds do (87% vs 65%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.