Ariana Geerlings vs Francesca Curmi
Updated
Ariana Geerlings beat Francesca Curmi 6-2, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Francesca Curmi at 79%. Ariana Geerlings leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Geerlings is 7-3 in their last 10, Curmi 8-2.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Francesca Curmi a 79% favorite. At -120 the sportsbook implies 55% for Francesca Curmi, 25 points below the model's 79%.
Model minus book: -33 pts
Model minus book: +25 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Francesca Curmi at -120 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Ariana Geerlings | Francesca Curmi | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6680 | 6761 |
| Tour rank | WTA #303 | WTA #230 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 30 days | 4-1 | 5-1 |
| Current streak | 6 Wins | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 30-5 | 49-24 |
| UTR | 11.46 | 11.68 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | – | 1557 |
| Best surface | – | Clay |
| Worst surface | – | Hard |
Head to head
Ariana Geerlings leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10.2026 | Ariana Geerlings | 6-2, 6-3 | Spain Mallorca |
Recent form
Ariana Geerlings, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10.2026 | Laura Samson | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 17.10.2026 | Francesca Curmi | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Julia Grabher | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Julia Grabher | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Lucia Cortez Llorca | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 13.10.2026 | Tea Kovacevic | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 07.10.2026 | Aurora Zantedeschi | L | 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 |
| 06.10.2026 | Laura Boehner | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 15.09.2026 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo | L | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 13.09.2026 | Lucia Cortez Llorca | L | 6-7, 6-4, 6-1 |
Francesca Curmi, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Clara Vlasselaer | W | 3-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 27.10.2026 | Astrid Cirotte | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 17.10.2026 | Ariana Geerlings | L | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Elizara Yaneva | W | 6-1, 4-6, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Elizara Yaneva | W | 6-1, 4-6, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Marina Bassols Ribera | W | 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
| 12.10.2026 | Eva Vedder | W | 4-6, 7-5, 6-0 |
| 09.10.2026 | Alisa Oktiabreva | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 08.10.2026 | Miriam Bianca Bulgaru | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 06.10.2026 | Maayan Laron | W | 6-1, 6-0 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Ariana Geerlings | Francesca Curmi |
|---|---|---|
| Dalila Jakupovic | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur | 1-0 W 4-6, 6-2, 6-4 |
1-1 L 6-7, 6-3, 6-4, W 6-3, 6-0 |
| Justina Mikulskyte | 0-1 L 6-1, 1-6, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-5, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-16: WTA Mallorca (Spain), model gave Ariana Geerlings 21% at -114
Ariana Geerlings vs Francesca Curmi: quick answers
Who won Ariana Geerlings vs Francesca Curmi?
Ariana Geerlings beat Francesca Curmi 6-2, 6-3, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Francesca Curmi at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ariana Geerlings and Francesca Curmi?
Ariana Geerlings leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 17, 2026, won by Ariana Geerlings 6-2, 6-3 at Spain Mallorca.
Who is in better form, Ariana Geerlings or Francesca Curmi?
Ariana Geerlings is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 6 Wins). Francesca Curmi is 8-2 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Ariana Geerlings and Francesca Curmi?
Ariana Geerlings is rated 6680 (WTA #303) and Francesca Curmi is rated 6761 (WTA #230). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Ariana Geerlings vs Francesca Curmi?
Ariana Geerlings is priced at -114 and Francesca Curmi at -120, which implies a 53% and 55% chance to win. The model rates Francesca Curmi 25 points higher than the odds do (79% vs 55%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.