Mingge Xu vs Ariana Arseneault
Updated
Mingge Xu beat Ariana Arseneault 7-5, 6-2, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Mingge Xu leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Xu is 6-4 in their last 10, Arseneault 6-4.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Mingge Xu a 63% favorite. At -130 the sportsbook implies 57% for Mingge Xu, 7 points below the model's 63%.
Model minus book: +7 pts
Model minus book: -16 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Mingge Xu at -130 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Mingge Xu | Ariana Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6623 | 6611 |
| Tour rank | WTA #365 | WTA #379 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Current streak | 5 Wins | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 15-21 | 42-31 |
| UTR | 11.2 | 11.07 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1358 | 1266 |
| Best surface | Hard | Hard |
| Worst surface | Grass | Grass |
Head to head
Mingge Xu leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10.2026 | Mingge Xu | 7-5, 6-2 | Canada Quebec City |
Recent form
Mingge Xu, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Emma Dong | W | 2-3 |
| 17.10.2026 | Ariana Arseneault | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 16.10.2026 | Yuki Naito | W | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 15.10.2026 | Cadence Brace | W | 6-4, 6-0 |
| 13.10.2026 | Michaela Bayerlova | W | 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
| 07.10.2026 | Aspen Schuman | L | 6-3, 6-0 |
| 29.09.2026 | Madison Brengle | L | 2-6, 7-5, 6-1 |
| 12.09.2026 | Caroline Dolehide | L | 6-0, 6-4 |
| 13.08.2026 | Susan Bandecchi | L | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 12.08.2026 | Edie Griffiths | W | 6-1, 6-0 |
Ariana Arseneault, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Sara Saito | L | 4-6, 7-6, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Yuki Naito | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 24.10.2026 | Sara Saito | W | 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 |
| 23.10.2026 | Katherine Sebov | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 21.10.2026 | Raphaelle Lacasse | W | 6-1, 2-6, 6-1 |
| 17.10.2026 | Mingge Xu | L | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 16.10.2026 | Ayana Akli | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 15.10.2026 | Madison Sieg | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Justina Mikulskyte | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 21.09.2026 | Angelina Voloshchuk | L | 6-3, 7-5 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Mingge Xu | Ariana Arseneault |
|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Mandlik | 0-1 L 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 |
0-1 L 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 |
| Emma Dong | 1-0 W 2-3 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
| Mai Hontama | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-1 |
0-1 L 6-2, 1-6, 7-5 |
| Michaela Bayerlova | 1-0 W 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-0 |
| Yuki Naito | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-5 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-16: WTA Quebec City (Canada), model gave Mingge Xu 63% at -130
Mingge Xu vs Ariana Arseneault: quick answers
Who won Mingge Xu vs Ariana Arseneault?
Mingge Xu beat Ariana Arseneault 7-5, 6-2, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Mingge Xu and Ariana Arseneault?
Mingge Xu leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 17, 2026, won by Mingge Xu 7-5, 6-2 at Canada Quebec City.
Who is in better form, Mingge Xu or Ariana Arseneault?
Mingge Xu is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 5 Wins). Ariana Arseneault is 6-4 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Mingge Xu and Ariana Arseneault?
Mingge Xu is rated 6623 (WTA #365) and Ariana Arseneault is rated 6611 (WTA #379). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Mingge Xu vs Ariana Arseneault?
Mingge Xu is priced at -130 and Ariana Arseneault at -110, which implies a 57% and 52% chance to win. The model rates Mingge Xu 7 points higher than the odds do (63% vs 57%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.