Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Katherine Sebov, giving them a 80% chance to win against Ariana Arseneault (20%). Ariana Arseneault leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Arseneault is 6-4 in their last 10, Sebov 4-6. At -125, the odds imply 56% for Katherine Sebov, below the model's 80%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Katherine Sebov a 80% favorite. At -125 the sportsbook implies 56% for Katherine Sebov, 24 points below the model's 80%.
Model minus book: -32 pts
Model minus book: +24 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Katherine Sebov at -125 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Ariana Arseneault | Katherine Sebov | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6611 | 6713 |
| Tour rank | WTA #379 | WTA #273 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| Last 30 days | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 42-31 | 31-28 |
| UTR | 11.07 | 11.5 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1266 | 1444 |
| Best surface | Hard | Grass |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Ariana Arseneault leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.10.2026 | Ariana Arseneault | 6-3, 6-4 | Canada Saguenay |
Recent form
Ariana Arseneault, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Sara Saito | L | 4-6, 7-6, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Yuki Naito | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 24.10.2026 | Sara Saito | W | 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 |
| 23.10.2026 | Katherine Sebov | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 21.10.2026 | Raphaelle Lacasse | W | 6-1, 2-6, 6-1 |
| 17.10.2026 | Mingge Xu | L | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 16.10.2026 | Ayana Akli | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 15.10.2026 | Madison Sieg | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 14.10.2026 | Justina Mikulskyte | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 21.09.2026 | Angelina Voloshchuk | L | 6-3, 7-5 |
Katherine Sebov, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Thara Gowda | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 27.10.2026 | Sakura Hosogi | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 23.10.2026 | Ariana Arseneault | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Margaux Rouvroy | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 15.10.2026 | Francoise Abanda | L | 1-6, 6-2, 6-1 |
| 01.10.2026 | Margaux Rouvroy | L | 1-6, 7-5, 6-4 |
| 29.09.2026 | Alize Lim | W | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 22.09.2026 | Gabriela Andrea Knutson | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 15.09.2026 | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 25.08.2026 | Julia Avdeeva | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Ariana Arseneault | Katherine Sebov |
|---|---|---|
| Anastasia Bertacchi | 0-1 L 1-6, 6-0, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-1, 6-1 |
| Lan Mi | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-1, 6-2 |
| Lucie Havlickova | 1-0 W 6-2, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-2 |
| Nahia Berecoechea | 0-1 L 4-6, 6-0, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-1 |
| Thara Gowda | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-1 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-27: WTA Saguenay (Canada), model gave Ariana Arseneault 20% at -109
- 2026-10-26: WTA Saguenay (Canada), model gave Ariana Arseneault 20% at -109
- 2026-10-25: WTA Saguenay (Canada), model gave Ariana Arseneault 20% at -109
- 2026-10-24: WTA Saguenay (Canada), model gave Ariana Arseneault 20% at -109
- 2026-10-23: WTA Saguenay (Canada), model gave Ariana Arseneault 20% at -109
- 2026-10-22: WTA Saguenay (Canada), model gave Ariana Arseneault 20% at -109
- 2026-10-21: WTA Saguenay (Canada), model gave Ariana Arseneault 20% at -109
Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov: quick answers
Who will win Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Katherine Sebov, giving them a 80% chance to win against Ariana Arseneault (20%).
What is the head-to-head record between Ariana Arseneault and Katherine Sebov?
Ariana Arseneault leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 23, 2026, won by Ariana Arseneault 6-3, 6-4 at Canada Saguenay.
Who is in better form, Ariana Arseneault or Katherine Sebov?
Ariana Arseneault is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Katherine Sebov is 4-6 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Ariana Arseneault and Katherine Sebov?
Ariana Arseneault is rated 6611 (WTA #379) and Katherine Sebov is rated 6713 (WTA #273). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Ariana Arseneault vs Katherine Sebov?
Ariana Arseneault is priced at -109 and Katherine Sebov at -125, which implies a 52% and 56% chance to win. The model rates Katherine Sebov 24 points higher than the odds do (80% vs 56%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.