Arantxa Rus vs Kaitlyn Carnicella
Updated
Kaitlyn Carnicella beat Arantxa Rus 6-2, 3-6, 7-5, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Arantxa Rus at 94%. Kaitlyn Carnicella leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Rus is 5-5 in their last 10, Carnicella 7-3.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Arantxa Rus a 94% favorite. At -286 the sportsbook implies 74% for Arantxa Rus, 20 points below the model's 94%.
Model minus book: +20 pts
Model minus book: -30 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Arantxa Rus at -286 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Arantxa Rus | Kaitlyn Carnicella | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6748 | 6480 |
| Tour rank | WTA #245 | WTA #582 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 3-2 | 3-0 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Win |
| Season record | 25-31 | 29-16 |
| UTR | 11.64 | 10.89 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1526 | – |
| Best surface | Clay | – |
| Worst surface | Grass | – |
Head to head
Kaitlyn Carnicella leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10.2026 | Kaitlyn Carnicella | 6-2, 3-6, 7-5 | USA Lexington |
Recent form
Arantxa Rus, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Kristina Liutova | L | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 28.10.2026 | Mayu Crossley | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 20.10.2026 | Yeon Woo Ku | L | 6-2, 3-6, 6-2 |
| 16.10.2026 | Yeon Woo Ku | L | 5-7, 7-6, 6-1 |
| 14.10.2026 | Alina Shcherbinina | W | 2-6, 7-5, 6-2 |
| 11.10.2026 | Kaitlyn Carnicella | L | 6-2, 3-6, 7-5 |
| 09.10.2026 | Whitney Osuigwe | W | 3-0 |
| 08.10.2026 | Malaika Rapolu | W | 6-4, 3-6, 7-5 |
| 06.10.2026 | Ena Koike | W | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 21.09.2026 | Mia Ristic | L | 4-6, 6-0, 6-3 |
Kaitlyn Carnicella, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10.2026 | Astra Sharma | L | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 11.10.2026 | Arantxa Rus | W | 6-2, 3-6, 7-5 |
| 09.10.2026 | Lucciana Perez Alarcon | W | 6-3, 3-0 |
| 08.10.2026 | Kajsa Rinaldo Persson | W | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 07.10.2026 | Helena Buchwald | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 26.09.2026 | Mia Slama | L | 7-5, 2-6, 6-0 |
| 26.09.2026 | Vivian Yang | W | 4-6, 6-0, 6-2 |
| 25.09.2026 | Irina Balus | L | 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 |
| 24.09.2026 | Linea Bajraliu | W | 7-5, 3-6, 6-2 |
| 23.09.2026 | Kyoka Kubo | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Arantxa Rus | Kaitlyn Carnicella |
|---|---|---|
| Alina Shcherbinina | 1-0 W 2-6, 7-5, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-0, 6-7, 7-5 |
| Mayu Crossley | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-1 |
0-2 L 7-6, 5-7, 10-7, L 6-3, 6-2 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-09: WTA Lexington (X) (USA), model gave Arantxa Rus 94% at +28
Arantxa Rus vs Kaitlyn Carnicella: quick answers
Who won Arantxa Rus vs Kaitlyn Carnicella?
Kaitlyn Carnicella beat Arantxa Rus 6-2, 3-6, 7-5, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Arantxa Rus at 94%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arantxa Rus and Kaitlyn Carnicella?
Kaitlyn Carnicella leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 11, 2026, won by Kaitlyn Carnicella 6-2, 3-6, 7-5 at USA Lexington.
Who is in better form, Arantxa Rus or Kaitlyn Carnicella?
Arantxa Rus is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Kaitlyn Carnicella is 7-3 (current streak: 1 Win).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Arantxa Rus and Kaitlyn Carnicella?
Arantxa Rus is rated 6748 (WTA #245) and Kaitlyn Carnicella is rated 6480 (WTA #582). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Arantxa Rus vs Kaitlyn Carnicella?
Arantxa Rus is priced at -286 and Kaitlyn Carnicella at +180, which implies a 74% and 36% chance to win. The model rates Arantxa Rus 20 points higher than the odds do (94% vs 74%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.