Aryna Sabalenka vs Ann Li
Updated
Ann Li beat Aryna Sabalenka 3-6, 6-4, 7-6, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Aryna Sabalenka at 83%. They are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head. Sabalenka is 7-3 in their last 10, Li 7-3.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Aryna Sabalenka a 83% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -3 pts
Model minus book: -1 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Aryna Sabalenka at -625 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Aryna Sabalenka | Ann Li | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 7166 | 7060 |
| Tour rank | WTA #5 | WTA #40 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Current streak | 2 Losses | 2 Losses |
| Season record | 49-11 | 32-27 |
| UTR | 12.93 | 12.38 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 2175 | 1828 |
| Best surface | Hard | Clay |
| Worst surface | Grass | Grass |
Head to head
Tied 1-1.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.2026 | Ann Li | 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 | China Wuhan |
| 21.03.2026 | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-6, 6-4 | USA Miami |
Recent form
Aryna Sabalenka, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.2026 | Ann Li | L | 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 |
| 04.10.2026 | Nikola Bartunkova | L | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 02.10.2026 | Renata Zarazua | W | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 12.09.2026 | Elena Rybakina | L | 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 |
| 11.09.2026 | Jessica Pegula | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 08.09.2026 | Linda Noskova | W | 7-6, 3-6, 7-6 |
| 06.09.2026 | Taylor Townsend | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 04.09.2026 | Kamilla Rakhimova | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 03.09.2026 | Polina Iatcenko | W | 6-1, 6-1 |
| 31.08.2026 | Camila Osorio | W | 6-2, 6-4 |
Ann Li, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 24.10.2026 | Ashlyn Krueger | L | 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
| 23.10.2026 | Lilli Tagger | W | 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 |
| 22.10.2026 | Zeynep Sonmez | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 20.10.2026 | Emerson Jones | W | 5-7, 6-0, 6-3 |
| 16.10.2026 | Iga Swiatek | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 15.10.2026 | Janice Tjen | W | 6-1, 7-6 |
| 14.10.2026 | Aryna Sabalenka | W | 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 |
| 14.10.2026 | Anchisa Chanta | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 13.10.2026 | Camila Osorio | W | 6-1, 3-0 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Aryna Sabalenka | Ann Li |
|---|---|---|
| Camila Osorio | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
3-0 W 6-1, 3-0, W 6-1, 6-2, W 6-4, 6-7, 7-5 |
| Coco Gauff | 1-0 W 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-1, 7-6 |
| Daria Kasatkina | 1-0 W 6-0, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-7, 6-2, 6-4 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1-1 L 7-6, 4-6, 6-4, W 6-4, 6-4 |
1-2 L 6-4, 6-4, L 6-1, 6-7, 6-1, W 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Elena Rybakina | 2-2 L 6-4, 5-7, 6-2, W 6-4, 6-3, W 3-6, 6-3, 7-6, L 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-2, 7-5 |
| Elina Svitolina | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-2, 6-3 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Linda Noskova | 2-0 W 7-6, 3-6, 7-6, W 6-3, 6-4 |
0-2 L 6-2, 6-7, 6-2, L 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 |
| Marta Kostyuk | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-0, 6-7, 6-3 |
| Shuai Zhang | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
3-0 W 7-5, 6-3, W 6-4, 6-2, W 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Talia Gibson | 1-0 W 6-2, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-3, 7-5 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-13: WTA Wuhan (China), model gave Aryna Sabalenka 83% at -625
Aryna Sabalenka vs Ann Li: quick answers
Who won Aryna Sabalenka vs Ann Li?
Ann Li beat Aryna Sabalenka 3-6, 6-4, 7-6, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Aryna Sabalenka at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aryna Sabalenka and Ann Li?
They are tied 1-1. Their most recent meeting was on October 14, 2026, won by Ann Li 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 at China Wuhan.
Who is in better form, Aryna Sabalenka or Ann Li?
Aryna Sabalenka is 7-3 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Losses). Ann Li is 7-3 (current streak: 2 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Aryna Sabalenka and Ann Li?
Aryna Sabalenka is rated 7166 (WTA #5) and Ann Li is rated 7060 (WTA #40). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Aryna Sabalenka vs Ann Li?
Aryna Sabalenka is priced at -625 and Ann Li at +462, which implies a 86% and 18% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.