Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev
Updated
Rei Sakamoto beat Andrey Rublev 6-4, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Andrey Rublev at 87%. Rei Sakamoto leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Sakamoto is 8-2 in their last 10, Rublev 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Andrey Rublev a 87% favorite. At -263 the sportsbook implies 72% for Andrey Rublev, 14 points below the model's 87%.
Model minus book: -20 pts
Model minus book: +14 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Andrey Rublev at -263 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Rei Sakamoto | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6775 | 6911 |
| Tour rank | ATP #134 | ATP #33 |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 4-1 | 5-2 |
| Current streak | 2 Wins | 4 Losses |
| Season record | 50-26 | 39-25 |
| UTR | 14.85 | 15.89 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1644 | 1880 |
| Best surface | Hard | Clay |
| Worst surface | Clay | Hard |
Head to head
Rei Sakamoto leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09.10.2026 | Rei Sakamoto | 6-4, 6-4 | China Shangai - Masters |
Recent form
Rei Sakamoto, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Zhizhen Zhang | W | 6-0, 6-4 |
| 26.10.2026 | Kasidit Samrej | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Karen Khachanov | L | 6-2, 6-4 |
| 18.10.2026 | Gabriel Diallo | W | 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 17.10.2026 | Amir Omarkhanov | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 11.10.2026 | Alex De Minaur | L | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 09.10.2026 | Andrey Rublev | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 07.10.2026 | Marco Trungelliti | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 06.10.2026 | Kyrian Jacquet | W | 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 05.10.2026 | Seong Chan Hong | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
Andrey Rublev, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Tommy Paul | L | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 21.10.2026 | Adrian Mannarino | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 09.10.2026 | Rei Sakamoto | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 04.10.2026 | Alex De Minaur | L | 1-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 03.10.2026 | Roman Safiullin | W | 6-2, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 01.10.2026 | Tallon Griekspoor | W | 6-4, 5-7, 7-6 |
| 29.09.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 28.09.2026 | Kyrian Jacquet | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 27.09.2026 | Hugo Gaston | W | 6-7, 7-6, 6-1 |
| 25.09.2026 | Rinky Hijikata | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Rei Sakamoto | Andrey Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Alex De Minaur | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-4 |
1-1 L 1-6, 6-2, 6-3, W 13-12, 8-18, 16-12, 13-12 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 0-1 L 6-7, 6-3, 6-1 |
0-1 L 7-5, 6-4 |
| Gabriel Diallo | 1-0 W 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-7, 7-6, 6-3 |
| Jaime Faria | 0-1 L 7-6, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-3, 4-6, 7-5 |
| Kyrian Jacquet | 1-0 W 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-1 |
| Lorenzo Sonego | 0-1 L 6-2, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-3 |
| Luca Van Assche | 0-3 L 4-6, 6-4, 7-6, L 6-3, 7-5, L 7-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 0-1 L 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Vit Kopriva | 0-1 L 6-4, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
| Yibing Wu | 0-1 L 7-5, 6-1 |
1-0 W 3-6, 6-2, 6-1 |
Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev: quick answers
Who won Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev?
Rei Sakamoto beat Andrey Rublev 6-4, 6-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Andrey Rublev at 87%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rei Sakamoto and Andrey Rublev?
Rei Sakamoto leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 9, 2026, won by Rei Sakamoto 6-4, 6-4 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Rei Sakamoto or Andrey Rublev?
Rei Sakamoto is 8-2 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Andrey Rublev is 5-5 (current streak: 4 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Rei Sakamoto and Andrey Rublev?
Rei Sakamoto is rated 6775 (ATP #134) and Andrey Rublev is rated 6911 (ATP #33). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev?
Rei Sakamoto is priced at +205 and Andrey Rublev at -263, which implies a 33% and 72% chance to win. The model rates Andrey Rublev 14 points higher than the odds do (87% vs 72%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.