Lorenzo Berto vs Andrey Chepelev

ATP Santa Margherita Di Pula IX (Italy), Clay. Wednesday, October 14, 2026, 12:00.

Updated

Lorenzo Berto beat Andrey Chepelev 6-4, 5-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Andrey Chepelev at 85%. They are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head. Berto is 5-5 in their last 10, Chepelev 6-4.

Result: Lorenzo Berto beat Andrey Chepelev 6-4, 5-4. An upset by the model's numbers: it favored Andrey Chepelev.

Pre-match prediction

The model makes Andrey Chepelev a 85% favorite. At -455 the sportsbook implies 82% for Andrey Chepelev, 3 points below the model's 85%.

Model
15%
Book
28%

Model minus book: -13 pts

Model
85%
Book
82%

Model minus book: +3 pts

Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Andrey Chepelev at -455 · Model track record

Player comparison

Lorenzo BertoAndrey Chepelev
Tennis Gauge rating63626483
Tour rankATP #907ATP #552
Last 10 matches5-56-4
Last 30 days3-27-3
Current streak1 Loss1 Loss
Season record25-2671-44
UTR12.813.85

Head to head

Tied 1-1.

DateWinnerScoreTournament
14.10.2026Lorenzo Berto6-4, 5-4Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula IX
14.09.2026Andrey Chepelev7-5, 6-3Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula VI

Recent form

Lorenzo Berto, last 10

DateOpponentScore
15.10.2026Alexander Weis L6-4, 7-5
14.10.2026Andrey Chepelev W6-4, 5-4
13.10.2026Daniele Rapagnetta W6-2, 6-3
06.10.2026Manuel Mazza L6-3, 6-1
22.09.2026Carlo Alberto Caniato L6-1, 7-5
21.09.2026Dimitris Sakellaridis W1-6, 7-5, 6-4
20.09.2026Lorenzo Bocchi W1-6, 6-0, 6-3
14.09.2026Andrey Chepelev L7-5, 6-3
05.09.2026Gabriele Bosio L2-6, 6-3, 6-4
04.09.2026Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini W6-4, 6-3

Andrey Chepelev, last 10

DateOpponentScore
22.10.2026Adrian Oetzbach L3-6, 6-3, 6-4
21.10.2026Manuel Mazza W6-3, 6-1
20.10.2026Romeo Spinolo W6-1, 6-0
14.10.2026Lorenzo Berto L6-4, 5-4
13.10.2026Simone Massucco W7-5, 7-5
10.10.2026Alexander Weis L7-5, 2-6, 6-1
09.10.2026Stefano Dagostino W7-6, 3-6, 6-3
08.10.2026Giorgio Tabacco W6-4, 1-6, 6-3
07.10.2026Michiel De Krom W7-6, 6-3
22.09.2026Max Wiskandt L7-6, 6-1

Common opponents, last 12 months

OpponentLorenzo BertoAndrey Chepelev
Alexander Weis 0-1
L 6-4, 7-5
0-1
L 7-5, 2-6, 6-1
Daniel Bagnolini 0-1
L 7-6, 6-2
0-1
L 6-3, 2-6, 6-3
Lorenzo Rottoli 1-0
W 2-6, 6-4, 6-1
1-0
W 6-2, 4-6, 6-1
Luca Parenti 1-0
W 6-7, 6-4, 6-3
1-0
W 7-6, 6-1
Manuel Mazza 0-1
L 6-3, 6-1
1-1
W 6-3, 6-1, L 3-6, 6-2, 6-4
Stefan Popovic 1-0
W 6-1, 6-4
0-1
L 6-2, 3-6, 1-0
Viacheslav Bielinskyi 0-1
L 6-3, 6-3
1-0
W 6-1, 6-4

Earlier previews of this matchup

  • 2026-10-13: ATP Santa Margherita Di Pula IX (Italy), model gave Lorenzo Berto 15% at +260

Lorenzo Berto vs Andrey Chepelev: quick answers

Who won Lorenzo Berto vs Andrey Chepelev?

Lorenzo Berto beat Andrey Chepelev 6-4, 5-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Andrey Chepelev at 85%.

What is the head-to-head record between Lorenzo Berto and Andrey Chepelev?

They are tied 1-1. Their most recent meeting was on October 14, 2026, won by Lorenzo Berto 6-4, 5-4 at Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula IX.

Who is in better form, Lorenzo Berto or Andrey Chepelev?

Lorenzo Berto is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Andrey Chepelev is 6-4 (current streak: 1 Loss).

How does Tennis Gauge rate Lorenzo Berto and Andrey Chepelev?

Lorenzo Berto is rated 6362 (ATP #907) and Andrey Chepelev is rated 6483 (ATP #552). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.

What are the odds for Lorenzo Berto vs Andrey Chepelev?

Lorenzo Berto is priced at +260 and Andrey Chepelev at -455, which implies a 28% and 82% chance to win. The model rates Andrey Chepelev 3 points higher than the odds do (85% vs 82%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.