Lorenzo Berto vs Andrey Chepelev
Updated
Lorenzo Berto beat Andrey Chepelev 6-4, 5-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Andrey Chepelev at 85%. They are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head. Berto is 5-5 in their last 10, Chepelev 6-4.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Andrey Chepelev a 85% favorite. At -455 the sportsbook implies 82% for Andrey Chepelev, 3 points below the model's 85%.
Model minus book: -13 pts
Model minus book: +3 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Andrey Chepelev at -455 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Lorenzo Berto | Andrey Chepelev | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6362 | 6483 |
| Tour rank | ATP #907 | ATP #552 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 3-2 | 7-3 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 25-26 | 71-44 |
| UTR | 12.8 | 13.85 |
Head to head
Tied 1-1.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.2026 | Lorenzo Berto | 6-4, 5-4 | Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula IX |
| 14.09.2026 | Andrey Chepelev | 7-5, 6-3 | Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula VI |
Recent form
Lorenzo Berto, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.10.2026 | Alexander Weis | L | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 14.10.2026 | Andrey Chepelev | W | 6-4, 5-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Daniele Rapagnetta | W | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 06.10.2026 | Manuel Mazza | L | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 22.09.2026 | Carlo Alberto Caniato | L | 6-1, 7-5 |
| 21.09.2026 | Dimitris Sakellaridis | W | 1-6, 7-5, 6-4 |
| 20.09.2026 | Lorenzo Bocchi | W | 1-6, 6-0, 6-3 |
| 14.09.2026 | Andrey Chepelev | L | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 05.09.2026 | Gabriele Bosio | L | 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 04.09.2026 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
Andrey Chepelev, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Adrian Oetzbach | L | 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 21.10.2026 | Manuel Mazza | W | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 20.10.2026 | Romeo Spinolo | W | 6-1, 6-0 |
| 14.10.2026 | Lorenzo Berto | L | 6-4, 5-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Simone Massucco | W | 7-5, 7-5 |
| 10.10.2026 | Alexander Weis | L | 7-5, 2-6, 6-1 |
| 09.10.2026 | Stefano Dagostino | W | 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 08.10.2026 | Giorgio Tabacco | W | 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 |
| 07.10.2026 | Michiel De Krom | W | 7-6, 6-3 |
| 22.09.2026 | Max Wiskandt | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Lorenzo Berto | Andrey Chepelev |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Weis | 0-1 L 6-4, 7-5 |
0-1 L 7-5, 2-6, 6-1 |
| Daniel Bagnolini | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 |
| Lorenzo Rottoli | 1-0 W 2-6, 6-4, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-2, 4-6, 6-1 |
| Luca Parenti | 1-0 W 6-7, 6-4, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-1 |
| Manuel Mazza | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-1 |
1-1 W 6-3, 6-1, L 3-6, 6-2, 6-4 |
| Stefan Popovic | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-2, 3-6, 1-0 |
| Viacheslav Bielinskyi | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-3 |
1-0 W 6-1, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-13: ATP Santa Margherita Di Pula IX (Italy), model gave Lorenzo Berto 15% at +260
Lorenzo Berto vs Andrey Chepelev: quick answers
Who won Lorenzo Berto vs Andrey Chepelev?
Lorenzo Berto beat Andrey Chepelev 6-4, 5-4, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Andrey Chepelev at 85%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lorenzo Berto and Andrey Chepelev?
They are tied 1-1. Their most recent meeting was on October 14, 2026, won by Lorenzo Berto 6-4, 5-4 at Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula IX.
Who is in better form, Lorenzo Berto or Andrey Chepelev?
Lorenzo Berto is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Andrey Chepelev is 6-4 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Lorenzo Berto and Andrey Chepelev?
Lorenzo Berto is rated 6362 (ATP #907) and Andrey Chepelev is rated 6483 (ATP #552). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Lorenzo Berto vs Andrey Chepelev?
Lorenzo Berto is priced at +260 and Andrey Chepelev at -455, which implies a 28% and 82% chance to win. The model rates Andrey Chepelev 3 points higher than the odds do (85% vs 82%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.