Andrea De Marchi vs Luis Carlos Alvarez
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Luis Carlos Alvarez, giving them a 62% chance to win against Andrea De Marchi (38%). Luis Carlos Alvarez leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Marchi is 6-4 in their last 10, Alvarez 4-6. At -139, the odds imply 58% for Luis Carlos Alvarez, below the model's 62%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Luis Carlos Alvarez a 62% favorite. At -139 the sportsbook implies 58% for Luis Carlos Alvarez, 3 points below the model's 62%.
Model minus book: -12 pts
Model minus book: +3 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Luis Carlos Alvarez at -139 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Andrea De Marchi | Luis Carlos Alvarez | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6429 | 6482 |
| Tour rank | ATP #691 | ATP #555 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| Last 30 days | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 41-21 | 20-10 |
| UTR | 13.83 | 14.01 |
Head to head
Luis Carlos Alvarez leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Luis Carlos Alvarez | 6-2, 6-2 | Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula X |
Recent form
Andrea De Marchi, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Luis Carlos Alvarez | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 21.10.2026 | Branko Djuric | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 20.10.2026 | Simone Macchione | W | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 04.10.2026 | Federico Arnaboldi | L | 4-6, 6-1, 6-3 |
| 24.09.2026 | Laurent Lokoli | L | 2-1 |
| 23.09.2026 | Gabriele Crivellaro | W | 6-7, 6-1, 6-1 |
| 21.09.2026 | Sebastiano Cocola | W | 4-6, 6-4, 6-0 |
| 18.09.2026 | Andrey Chepelev | L | 2-6, 7-5, 6-1 |
| 17.09.2026 | Garrett Johns | W | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 16.09.2026 | Marcello Serafini | W | 6-4, 6-1 |
Luis Carlos Alvarez, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.10.2026 | Adrian Oetzbach | L | 6-4, 5-7, 6-1 |
| 22.10.2026 | Andrea De Marchi | W | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 21.10.2026 | Gabriele Bosio | W | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 19.10.2026 | Eric Vanshelboim | W | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 13.10.2026 | Eero Vasa | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 06.10.2026 | Giorgio Tabacco | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 27.09.2026 | Svyatoslav Gulin | L | 7-5, 6-1 |
| 18.08.2026 | Rio Noguchi | L | 7-6, 4-6, 6-1 |
| 16.08.2026 | Karl Poling | L | 5-7, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 15.08.2026 | Max Sheldon | W | 6-1, 6-2 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-27: ATP Santa Margherita Di Pula X (Italy), model gave Andrea De Marchi 38% at -103
- 2026-10-26: ATP Santa Margherita Di Pula X (Italy), model gave Andrea De Marchi 38% at -103
- 2026-10-25: ATP Santa Margherita Di Pula X (Italy), model gave Andrea De Marchi 38% at -103
- 2026-10-24: ATP Santa Margherita Di Pula X (Italy), model gave Andrea De Marchi 38% at -103
- 2026-10-23: ATP Santa Margherita Di Pula X (Italy), model gave Andrea De Marchi 38% at -103
- 2026-10-22: ATP Santa Margherita Di Pula X (Italy), model gave Andrea De Marchi 38% at -103
- 2026-10-21: ATP Santa Margherita Di Pula X (Italy), model gave Andrea De Marchi 38% at -103
Andrea De Marchi vs Luis Carlos Alvarez: quick answers
Who will win Andrea De Marchi vs Luis Carlos Alvarez?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Luis Carlos Alvarez, giving them a 62% chance to win against Andrea De Marchi (38%).
What is the head-to-head record between Andrea De Marchi and Luis Carlos Alvarez?
Luis Carlos Alvarez leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 22, 2026, won by Luis Carlos Alvarez 6-2, 6-2 at Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula X.
Who is in better form, Andrea De Marchi or Luis Carlos Alvarez?
Andrea De Marchi is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Luis Carlos Alvarez is 4-6 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Andrea De Marchi and Luis Carlos Alvarez?
Andrea De Marchi is rated 6429 (ATP #691) and Luis Carlos Alvarez is rated 6482 (ATP #555). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Andrea De Marchi vs Luis Carlos Alvarez?
Andrea De Marchi is priced at -103 and Luis Carlos Alvarez at -139, which implies a 51% and 58% chance to win. The model rates Luis Carlos Alvarez 3 points higher than the odds do (62% vs 58%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.