Andre Ilagan vs Mert Alkaya
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Andre Ilagan, giving them a 77% chance to win against Mert Alkaya (23%). Andre Ilagan leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Ilagan is 4-6 in their last 10, Alkaya 6-4. At -189, the odds imply 65% for Andre Ilagan, below the model's 77%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Andre Ilagan a 77% favorite. At -189 the sportsbook implies 65% for Andre Ilagan, 11 points below the model's 77%.
Model minus book: +11 pts
Model minus book: -20 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Andre Ilagan at -189 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Andre Ilagan | Mert Alkaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6640 | 6555 |
| Tour rank | ATP #292 | ATP #410 |
| Last 10 matches | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 3-4 | 4-2 |
| Current streak | 2 Losses | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 47-32 | 49-30 |
| UTR | 14.43 | 13.94 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1521 | 1369 |
| Best surface | Hard | Grass |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Andre Ilagan leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.10.2026 | Andre Ilagan | 6-4, 3-6, 6-1 | China Guangzhou |
Recent form
Andre Ilagan, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Taro Daniel | L | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 23.10.2026 | Yi Zhou | L | 7-6, 6-2 |
| 21.10.2026 | Khumoyun Sultanov | W | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 19.10.2026 | Mert Alkaya | W | 6-4, 3-6, 6-1 |
| 14.10.2026 | Yosuke Watanuki | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 05.10.2026 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | L | 6-3, 6-7, 7-5 |
| 02.10.2026 | Lloyd Harris | L | 7-5, 6-1 |
| 01.10.2026 | Marat Sharipov | W | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 29.09.2026 | Matthew Dellavedova | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 22.09.2026 | Petr Bar Biryukov | L | 7-6, 7-6 |
Mert Alkaya, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Hiroki Moriya | W | 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 26.10.2026 | Rigele Te | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 19.10.2026 | Andre Ilagan | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-1 |
| 11.10.2026 | Matthew Dellavedova | L | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 10.10.2026 | Nino Ehrenschneider | W | 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 09.10.2026 | Yan Cheng Chen | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 08.10.2026 | Ko Suzuki | W | 6-0, 6-1 |
| 07.10.2026 | Isaac Becroft | W | 6-1, 7-5 |
| 20.09.2026 | Francisco Cerundolo | L | 6-1, 6-0 |
| 19.09.2026 | Thiago Agustin Tirante | L | 6-2, 6-4 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Andre Ilagan | Mert Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| Edas Butvilas | 1-1 L 6-2, 1-6, 7-6, W 6-3, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 |
| Hiroki Moriya | 1-0 W 6-2, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 |
| Khumoyun Sultanov | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-2 |
0-1 L 7-6, 6-3 |
| Matthew Dellavedova | 3-0 W 6-4, 6-3, W 7-6, 6-1, W 6-3, 6-0 |
0-1 L 6-2, 6-1 |
| Rigele Te | 0-1 L 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-19: ATP Guangzhou (China), model gave Mert Alkaya 23% at +148
- 2026-10-18: ATP Guangzhou (China), model gave Mert Alkaya 23% at +148
Andre Ilagan vs Mert Alkaya: quick answers
Who will win Andre Ilagan vs Mert Alkaya?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Andre Ilagan, giving them a 77% chance to win against Mert Alkaya (23%).
What is the head-to-head record between Andre Ilagan and Mert Alkaya?
Andre Ilagan leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 19, 2026, won by Andre Ilagan 6-4, 3-6, 6-1 at China Guangzhou.
Who is in better form, Andre Ilagan or Mert Alkaya?
Andre Ilagan is 4-6 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Losses). Mert Alkaya is 6-4 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Andre Ilagan and Mert Alkaya?
Andre Ilagan is rated 6640 (ATP #292) and Mert Alkaya is rated 6555 (ATP #410). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Andre Ilagan vs Mert Alkaya?
Andre Ilagan is priced at -189 and Mert Alkaya at +133, which implies a 65% and 43% chance to win. The model rates Andre Ilagan 11 points higher than the odds do (77% vs 65%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.