Tomas Machac vs Alexandre Muller
Updated
Tomas Machac beat Alexandre Muller 6-3, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Tomas Machac leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Machac is 5-5 in their last 10, Muller 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Tomas Machac a 83% favorite. At -238 the sportsbook implies 70% for Tomas Machac, 13 points below the model's 83%.
Model minus book: +13 pts
Model minus book: -20 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Tomas Machac at -238 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Tomas Machac | Alexandre Muller | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6877 | 6746 |
| Tour rank | ATP #54 | ATP #159 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 2-3 | 5-3 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 3 Losses |
| Season record | 21-21 | 18-28 |
| UTR | 15.7 | 14.78 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1802 | 1640 |
| Best surface | Hard | Hard |
| Worst surface | Grass | Grass |
Head to head
Tomas Machac leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.2026 | Tomas Machac | 6-3, 6-4 | China Jinan |
Recent form
Tomas Machac, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Alex De Minaur | L | 1-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Corentin Moutet | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 22.10.2026 | Karen Khachanov | L | 6-2, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 21.10.2026 | Zangar Nurlanuly | W | 6-2, 6-0 |
| 16.10.2026 | Liam Draxl | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Liam Draxl | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 15.10.2026 | Aleksandar Vukic | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 13.10.2026 | Alexandre Muller | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 09.10.2026 | Alexander Bublik | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 07.10.2026 | Zhizhen Zhang | W | 1-6, 7-6, 6-2 |
Alexandre Muller, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.10.2026 | Omar Jasika | L | 6-4, 2-0 |
| 13.10.2026 | Tomas Machac | L | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 06.10.2026 | Mattia Bellucci | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 05.10.2026 | Rio Noguchi | W | 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 |
| 30.09.2026 | Mattia Bellucci | L | 6-0, 6-3 |
| 27.09.2026 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L | 6-1, 7-5 |
| 26.09.2026 | Federico Cina | W | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 24.09.2026 | Moise Kouame | W | 6-4, 6-0 |
| 23.09.2026 | Petr Bar Biryukov | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 22.09.2026 | Luka Pavlovic | W | 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Tomas Machac | Alexandre Muller |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Molcan | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
| Alexander Zverev | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Corentin Moutet | 1-1 W 6-4, 6-4, L 6-0, 1-6, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-1 |
| Rafael Jodar | 0-1 L 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-2, 2-0 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2-0 W 6-4, 7-6, W 6-4, 3-6, 7-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-2, 3-0 |
| Tommy Paul | 1-0 W 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-2, 6-1 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-12: ATP Jinan (China), model gave Tomas Machac 83% at -238
Tomas Machac vs Alexandre Muller: quick answers
Who won Tomas Machac vs Alexandre Muller?
Tomas Machac beat Alexandre Muller 6-3, 6-4, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Tomas Machac and Alexandre Muller?
Tomas Machac leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 13, 2026, won by Tomas Machac 6-3, 6-4 at China Jinan.
Who is in better form, Tomas Machac or Alexandre Muller?
Tomas Machac is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Alexandre Muller is 5-5 (current streak: 3 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Tomas Machac and Alexandre Muller?
Tomas Machac is rated 6877 (ATP #54) and Alexandre Muller is rated 6746 (ATP #159). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Tomas Machac vs Alexandre Muller?
Tomas Machac is priced at -238 and Alexandre Muller at +170, which implies a 70% and 37% chance to win. The model rates Tomas Machac 13 points higher than the odds do (83% vs 70%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.