Alexander Chang vs Valentin Lapalu
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Alexander Chang, giving them a 56% chance to win against Valentin Lapalu (44%). Alexander Chang leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Chang is 6-4 in their last 10, Lapalu 3-7. At +260, the odds imply 28% for Valentin Lapalu, below the model's 44%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Alexander Chang a 56% favorite. At +260 the sportsbook implies 28% for Valentin Lapalu, 16 points below the model's 44%.
Model minus book: -27 pts
Model minus book: +16 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Valentin Lapalu at +260 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Alexander Chang | Valentin Lapalu | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6361 | 6192 |
| Tour rank | ATP #911 | ATP #1650 |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 3-7 |
| Last 30 days | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Current streak | 2 Wins | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 23-11 | 22-27 |
| UTR | 13.24 | 12.87 |
Head to head
Alexander Chang leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Alexander Chang | 6-4, 6-4 | Greece Heraklion |
Recent form
Alexander Chang, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Valentin Lapalu | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 28.10.2026 | Karl Friberg | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Lorenzo Carboni | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 13.10.2026 | Tommaso Compagnucci | L | 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 07.10.2026 | Rares Teodor Pieleanu | L | 6-0, 5-7, 6-4 |
| 05.10.2026 | Filippo Alfano | W | 7-6, 6-2 |
| 04.10.2026 | Valerio Bracci | W | 6-0, 7-5 |
| 13.09.2026 | Karan Singh | L | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 12.09.2026 | Nathan Anthony Barki | W | 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
| 11.09.2026 | Pablo Perez Ramos | W | 6-1, 6-0 |
Valentin Lapalu, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Alexander Chang | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 27.10.2026 | Jack Dermenjyan | W | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 07.10.2026 | Julien Penzlin | L | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 16.09.2026 | Aidan Mchugh | L | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 09.09.2026 | Tyler Stice | L | 6-2, 7-6 |
| 04.09.2026 | Roan Jones | L | 6-1, 6-3 |
| 03.09.2026 | Kael Shalin Shah | W | 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 02.09.2026 | Toufik Sahtali | W | 4-6, 6-1, 6-2 |
| 25.08.2026 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez | L | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 12.08.2026 | Karl Friberg | L | 6-2, 6-3 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Alexander Chang | Valentin Lapalu |
|---|---|---|
| Karl Friberg | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-2, 6-3 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-29: ATP Heraklion (XI) III (Greece), model gave Alexander Chang 56% at -476
Alexander Chang vs Valentin Lapalu: quick answers
Who will win Alexander Chang vs Valentin Lapalu?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Alexander Chang, giving them a 56% chance to win against Valentin Lapalu (44%).
What is the head-to-head record between Alexander Chang and Valentin Lapalu?
Alexander Chang leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 29, 2026, won by Alexander Chang 6-4, 6-4 at Greece Heraklion.
Who is in better form, Alexander Chang or Valentin Lapalu?
Alexander Chang is 6-4 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Valentin Lapalu is 3-7 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Alexander Chang and Valentin Lapalu?
Alexander Chang is rated 6361 (ATP #911) and Valentin Lapalu is rated 6192 (ATP #1650). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Alexander Chang vs Valentin Lapalu?
Alexander Chang is priced at -476 and Valentin Lapalu at +260, which implies a 83% and 28% chance to win. The model rates Valentin Lapalu 16 points higher than the odds do (44% vs 28%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.