Lorenzo Carboni vs Alexander Chang
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Lorenzo Carboni, giving them a 67% chance to win against Alexander Chang (33%). Lorenzo Carboni leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Carboni is 5-5 in their last 10, Chang 6-4.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Lorenzo Carboni a 67% favorite. The odds and the model roughly agree, so neither side shows value.
Model minus book: -7 pts
Model minus book: -2 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Lorenzo Carboni at -286 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Lorenzo Carboni | Alexander Chang | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6531 | 6361 |
| Tour rank | ATP #469 | ATP #911 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 30 days | 5-4 | 2-3 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 35-34 | 23-11 |
| UTR | 13.78 | 13.24 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1185 | – |
| Best surface | Grass | – |
| Worst surface | Clay | – |
Head to head
Lorenzo Carboni leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10.2026 | Lorenzo Carboni | 6-3, 6-3 | Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula X |
Recent form
Lorenzo Carboni, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10.2026 | Lorenzo Angelini | L | 6-0, 7-5 |
| 21.10.2026 | Tommaso Compagnucci | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 20.10.2026 | Alexander Chang | W | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 14.10.2026 | Luca Nardi | L | 6-4, 6-1 |
| 12.10.2026 | Mackenzie Mcdonald | W | 6-7, 6-4, 1-0 |
| 07.10.2026 | Federico Iannaccone | L | 6-3, 6-0 |
| 02.10.2026 | Sander Jong | L | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 01.10.2026 | Javier Barranco Cosano | W | 6-0, 6-4 |
| 29.09.2026 | Jaume Casas Blasi | W | 6-3, 1-6, 6-1 |
| 24.09.2026 | Daniel Michalski | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
Alexander Chang, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Valentin Lapalu | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 28.10.2026 | Karl Friberg | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Lorenzo Carboni | L | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 13.10.2026 | Tommaso Compagnucci | L | 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 07.10.2026 | Rares Teodor Pieleanu | L | 6-0, 5-7, 6-4 |
| 05.10.2026 | Filippo Alfano | W | 7-6, 6-2 |
| 04.10.2026 | Valerio Bracci | W | 6-0, 7-5 |
| 13.09.2026 | Karan Singh | L | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 12.09.2026 | Nathan Anthony Barki | W | 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
| 11.09.2026 | Pablo Perez Ramos | W | 6-1, 6-0 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Lorenzo Carboni | Alexander Chang |
|---|---|---|
| Tommaso Compagnucci | 1-0 W 6-3, 7-5 |
0-1 L 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
Lorenzo Carboni vs Alexander Chang: quick answers
Who will win Lorenzo Carboni vs Alexander Chang?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Lorenzo Carboni, giving them a 67% chance to win against Alexander Chang (33%).
What is the head-to-head record between Lorenzo Carboni and Alexander Chang?
Lorenzo Carboni leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 20, 2026, won by Lorenzo Carboni 6-3, 6-3 at Italy Santa Margherita Di Pula X.
Who is in better form, Lorenzo Carboni or Alexander Chang?
Lorenzo Carboni is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Alexander Chang is 6-4 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Lorenzo Carboni and Alexander Chang?
Lorenzo Carboni is rated 6531 (ATP #469) and Alexander Chang is rated 6361 (ATP #911). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Lorenzo Carboni vs Alexander Chang?
Lorenzo Carboni is priced at -286 and Alexander Chang at +180, which implies a 74% and 36% chance to win. The model and the odds roughly agree, so neither side shows value.