Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Machac
Updated
Alexander Bublik beat Tomas Machac 6-4, 7-6, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick. Alexander Bublik leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Bublik is 5-5 in their last 10, Machac 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Alexander Bublik a 62% favorite. At +230 the sportsbook implies 30% for Tomas Machac, 8 points below the model's 38%.
Model minus book: -15 pts
Model minus book: +8 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Tomas Machac at +230 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Alexander Bublik | Tomas Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6922 | 6877 |
| Tour rank | ATP #25 | ATP #54 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 1 Loss |
| Season record | 32-24 | 21-21 |
| UTR | 15.81 | 15.7 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1893 | 1818 |
| Best surface | Grass | Hard |
| Worst surface | Clay | Grass |
Head to head
Alexander Bublik leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09.10.2026 | Alexander Bublik | 6-4, 7-6 | China Shangai - Masters |
Recent form
Alexander Bublik, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 6-3 |
| 23.10.2026 | Karen Khachanov | W | 4-6, 7-6, 7-6 |
| 13.10.2026 | Alexander Zverev | L | 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 11.10.2026 | Brandon Nakashima | W | 6-7, 6-3, 7-6 |
| 09.10.2026 | Tomas Machac | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 01.10.2026 | Jakub Mensik | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 25.09.2026 | Rafael Jodar | L | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 04.09.2026 | Tommy Paul | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
| 03.09.2026 | Adrian Mannarino | W | 6-3, 6-1, 6-1 |
| 31.08.2026 | J J Wolf | W | 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 |
Tomas Machac, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10.2026 | Alex De Minaur | L | 1-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 24.10.2026 | Corentin Moutet | W | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 22.10.2026 | Karen Khachanov | L | 6-2, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 21.10.2026 | Zangar Nurlanuly | W | 6-2, 6-0 |
| 16.10.2026 | Liam Draxl | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 16.10.2026 | Liam Draxl | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 15.10.2026 | Aleksandar Vukic | W | 6-2, 6-1 |
| 13.10.2026 | Alexandre Muller | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 09.10.2026 | Alexander Bublik | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 07.10.2026 | Zhizhen Zhang | W | 1-6, 7-6, 6-2 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Alexander Bublik | Tomas Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Mannarino | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-1, 6-1 |
1-0 W 16-11, 14-11, 13-17, 11-13, 2-0 |
| Alex De Minaur | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-1, 6-1 |
0-2 L 1-6, 6-4, 6-3, L 10-15, 16-11, 16-13, 16-12 |
| Alex Molcan | 1-1 W 6-3, 6-2, L 6-4, 6-2 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
| Alexander Zverev | 0-1 L 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 |
| Jaume Munar | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-7, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
| Jiri Lehecka | 1-0 W 6-2, 7-5 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-7, 6-2 |
| Karen Khachanov | 1-0 W 4-6, 7-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-2, 4-6, 7-6 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 5-7, 6-2 |
| Quentin Halys | 0-2 L 6-4, 7-6, L 6-7, 6-4, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
| Rafael Jodar | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 |
| Sebastian Baez | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-2 |
1-0 W 2-6, 6-4, 6-1 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0-1 L 6-2, 7-5 |
2-0 W 6-4, 7-6, W 6-4, 3-6, 7-6, 7-6 |
| Tommy Paul | 0-1 L 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
1-0 W 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
| Ugo Humbert | 1-0 W 11-18, 10-21, 17-16, 17-12, 2-0 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-7, 6-2 |
Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Machac: quick answers
Who won Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Machac?
Alexander Bublik beat Tomas Machac 6-4, 7-6, matching the Tennis Gauge model's pick.
What is the head-to-head record between Alexander Bublik and Tomas Machac?
Alexander Bublik leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 9, 2026, won by Alexander Bublik 6-4, 7-6 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Alexander Bublik or Tomas Machac?
Alexander Bublik is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Tomas Machac is 5-5 (current streak: 1 Loss).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Alexander Bublik and Tomas Machac?
Alexander Bublik is rated 6922 (ATP #25) and Tomas Machac is rated 6877 (ATP #54). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Machac?
Alexander Bublik is priced at -333 and Tomas Machac at +230, which implies a 77% and 30% chance to win. The model rates Tomas Machac 8 points higher than the odds do (38% vs 30%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.