Alexander Bublik vs Brandon Nakashima
Updated
Alexander Bublik beat Brandon Nakashima 6-7, 6-3, 7-6, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Brandon Nakashima at 61%. Alexander Bublik leads 1-0 in their head-to-head. Bublik is 5-5 in their last 10, Nakashima 5-5.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Brandon Nakashima a 61% favorite. At -123 the sportsbook implies 55% for Brandon Nakashima, 6 points below the model's 61%.
Model minus book: -10 pts
Model minus book: +6 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Brandon Nakashima at -123 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Alexander Bublik | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6922 | 6935 |
| Tour rank | ATP #25 | ATP #21 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 30 days | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 2 Losses |
| Season record | 32-24 | 38-23 |
| UTR | 15.81 | 16.04 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1893 | 1918 |
| Best surface | Grass | Hard |
| Worst surface | Clay | Clay |
Head to head
Alexander Bublik leads 1-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10.2026 | Alexander Bublik | 6-7, 6-3, 7-6 | China Shangai - Masters |
Recent form
Alexander Bublik, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.10.2026 | Daniil Medvedev | L | 6-3 |
| 23.10.2026 | Karen Khachanov | W | 4-6, 7-6, 7-6 |
| 13.10.2026 | Alexander Zverev | L | 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 11.10.2026 | Brandon Nakashima | W | 6-7, 6-3, 7-6 |
| 09.10.2026 | Tomas Machac | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 01.10.2026 | Jakub Mensik | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 25.09.2026 | Rafael Jodar | L | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 04.09.2026 | Tommy Paul | L | 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-1, 6-3 |
| 03.09.2026 | Adrian Mannarino | W | 6-3, 6-1, 6-1 |
| 31.08.2026 | J J Wolf | W | 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 |
Brandon Nakashima, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Tallon Griekspoor | L | 6-1, 4-6, 7-6 |
| 23.10.2026 | Flavio Cobolli | L | 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 22.10.2026 | Kyrian Jacquet | W | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 20.10.2026 | Hamad Medjedovic | W | 7-6, 6-7, 6-2 |
| 11.10.2026 | Alexander Bublik | L | 6-7, 6-3, 7-6 |
| 09.10.2026 | Matteo Berrettini | W | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 01.10.2026 | Ugo Humbert | L | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 25.09.2026 | Jakub Mensik | W | 6-1, 3-6, 10-7 |
| 02.09.2026 | Alex Michelsen | L | 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 31.08.2026 | Sebastian Baez | W | 6-2, 6-1, 6-0 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Alexander Bublik | Brandon Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Alex De Minaur | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-1, 6-1 |
2-0 W 7-6, 6-4, W 7-5, 6-3 |
| Alexander Zverev | 0-1 L 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 |
0-1 L 7-6, 5-7, 6-4 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 1-0 W 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 |
1-0 W 7-6, 5-7, 7-5 |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
0-1 L 6-3, 4-6, 7-6, 7-6 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 0-1 L 6-3 |
1-1 W 6-7, 7-6, 6-1, L 6-2, 7-6 |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 0-1 L 6-1, 6-2 |
0-1 L 5-7, 6-1, 7-6, 7-6 |
| Frances Tiafoe | 1-0 W 4-6, 7-6, 7-6, 4-6, 6-3 |
0-2 L 7-5, 6-3, L 3-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| Jakub Mensik | 0-1 L 6-4, 7-6 |
2-0 W 6-1, 3-6, 10-7, W 7-6, 3-6, 6-4 |
| Jan Lennard Struff | 3-1 W 7-6, 3-6, 6-2, L 7-5, 6-7, 6-4, 7-5, W 6-3, 6-4, W 7-6, 4-6, 6-3 |
0-1 L 4-6, 7-6, 7-6, 6-7, 7-6 |
| Kyrian Jacquet | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-3 |
| Marton Fucsovics | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-4, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-3 |
| Matteo Berrettini | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 7-6, 7-5 |
| Mattia Bellucci | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-1 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
| Quentin Halys | 0-2 L 6-4, 7-6, L 6-7, 6-4, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-4 |
| Rafael Jodar | 0-1 L 6-2, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
| Sebastian Baez | 1-0 W 6-1, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-1, 6-0 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | 0-1 L 6-3, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-1, 4-6, 7-6 |
| Taylor Fritz | 0-2 L 7-6, 6-4, 6-4, L 6-4, 6-4 |
1-2 W 7-6, 4-6, 6-3, L 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, L 6-3, 6-4 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 2-0 W 6-3, 6-4, W 7-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
| Ugo Humbert | 1-0 W 11-18, 10-21, 17-16, 17-12, 2-0 |
0-1 L 6-3, 6-2 |
| Valentin Vacherot | 0-1 L 7-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 2-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
Alexander Bublik vs Brandon Nakashima: quick answers
Who won Alexander Bublik vs Brandon Nakashima?
Alexander Bublik beat Brandon Nakashima 6-7, 6-3, 7-6, an upset by the model's numbers, which favored Brandon Nakashima at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alexander Bublik and Brandon Nakashima?
Alexander Bublik leads 1-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 11, 2026, won by Alexander Bublik 6-7, 6-3, 7-6 at China Shangai - Masters.
Who is in better form, Alexander Bublik or Brandon Nakashima?
Alexander Bublik is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Brandon Nakashima is 5-5 (current streak: 2 Losses).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Alexander Bublik and Brandon Nakashima?
Alexander Bublik is rated 6922 (ATP #25) and Brandon Nakashima is rated 6935 (ATP #21). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Alexander Bublik vs Brandon Nakashima?
Alexander Bublik is priced at +104 and Brandon Nakashima at -123, which implies a 49% and 55% chance to win. The model rates Brandon Nakashima 6 points higher than the odds do (61% vs 55%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.