Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Fils
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Arthur Fils, giving them a 74% chance to win against Alex Michelsen (26%). Arthur Fils leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. Michelsen is 5-5 in their last 10, Fils 7-3. At -217, the odds imply 68% for Arthur Fils, below the model's 74%.
Pre-match prediction
The model makes Arthur Fils a 74% favorite. At -217 the sportsbook implies 68% for Arthur Fils, 5 points below the model's 74%.
Model minus book: -10 pts
Model minus book: +5 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Arthur Fils at -217 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Alex Michelsen | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6927 | 6981 |
| Tour rank | ATP #23 | ATP #4 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Last 30 days | 3-3 | 5-3 |
| Current streak | 1 Loss | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 38-24 | 41-14 |
| UTR | 15.93 | 16.29 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1860 | 2020 |
| Best surface | Hard | Hard |
| Worst surface | Clay | Grass |
Head to head
Arthur Fils leads 2-0.
| Date | Winner | Score | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Arthur Fils | 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 | Switzerland Basel |
| 23.10.2026 | Arthur Fils | 6-4, 7-6 | Belgium Brussels |
Recent form
Alex Michelsen, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Arthur Fils | L | 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Botic Van De Zandschulp | W | 5-7, 6-3, 6-3 |
| 23.10.2026 | Arthur Fils | L | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 22.10.2026 | David Goffin | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 19.10.2026 | Andrea Guerrieri | W | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 10.10.2026 | Botic Van De Zandschulp | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 01.10.2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | L | 7-6, 4-6, 6-1 |
| 08.09.2026 | Frances Tiafoe | L | 5-7, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 |
| 06.09.2026 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W | 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 05.09.2026 | Daniel Merida Aguilar | W | 7-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
Arthur Fils, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Alex Michelsen | W | 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 |
| 27.10.2026 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | W | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 24.10.2026 | Jan Lennard Struff | L | 6-4, 6-7, 7-6 |
| 23.10.2026 | Alex Michelsen | W | 6-4, 7-6 |
| 12.10.2026 | Botic Van De Zandschulp | L | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 10.10.2026 | Pavel Kotov | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 04.10.2026 | Valentin Vacherot | L | 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 |
| 02.10.2026 | Frances Tiafoe | W | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 30.09.2026 | Luca Van Assche | W | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 29.09.2026 | Kamil Majchrzak | W | 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Alex Michelsen | Arthur Fils |
|---|---|---|
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | 1-1 W 5-7, 6-3, 6-3, L 6-4, 6-4 |
0-1 L 7-5, 6-4 |
| Brandon Nakashima | 1-0 W 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 6-3 |
| Cameron Norrie | 1-0 W 7-5, 6-7, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 7-6 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 0-1 L 7-6, 4-6, 6-1 |
0-1 L 6-2, 6-1 |
| Frances Tiafoe | 0-1 L 5-7, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 |
2-0 W 6-3, 7-5, W 6-3, 1-6, 6-0 |
| Jan Lennard Struff | 2-0 W 6-1, 3-6, 6-1, W 6-2, 6-1 |
0-1 L 6-4, 6-7, 7-6 |
| Jannik Sinner | 0-1 L 7-5, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-2, 6-4 |
| Jiri Lehecka | 0-1 L 6-4, 6-2 |
3-1 W 6-1, 6-7, 6-3, W 6-3, 6-4, L 6-2, 6-2, W 6-3, 6-3 |
| Mariano Navone | 1-0 W 2-6, 6-2, 7-5 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-2 |
| Rafael Jodar | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-7, 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 |
1-2 L 7-6, 6-3, L 7-6, 6-3, W 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-3, 6-4 |
| Valentin Vacherot | 1-0 W 7-6, 6-4 |
1-1 L 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, W 6-4, 6-7, 6-4 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-10-29: ATP Basel (Switzerland), model gave Alex Michelsen 26% at +173
Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Fils: quick answers
Who will win Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Fils?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Arthur Fils, giving them a 74% chance to win against Alex Michelsen (26%).
What is the head-to-head record between Alex Michelsen and Arthur Fils?
Arthur Fils leads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was on October 29, 2026, won by Arthur Fils 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 at Switzerland Basel.
Who is in better form, Alex Michelsen or Arthur Fils?
Alex Michelsen is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 1 Loss). Arthur Fils is 7-3 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Alex Michelsen and Arthur Fils?
Alex Michelsen is rated 6927 (ATP #23) and Arthur Fils is rated 6981 (ATP #4). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Fils?
Alex Michelsen is priced at +173 and Arthur Fils at -217, which implies a 37% and 68% chance to win. The model rates Arthur Fils 5 points higher than the odds do (74% vs 68%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.