Matteo Berrettini vs Alex De Minaur
Updated
Tennis Gauge's model favors Alex De Minaur, giving them a 77% chance to win against Matteo Berrettini (23%). Berrettini is 5-5 in their last 10, Minaur 8-2. At -238, the odds imply 70% for Alex De Minaur, below the model's 77%.
Prediction
The model makes Alex De Minaur a 77% favorite. At -238 the sportsbook implies 70% for Alex De Minaur, 6 points below the model's 77%.
Model minus book: -12 pts
Model minus book: +6 pts
Model estimates, not betting advice. How the numbers work · Expected value of Alex De Minaur at -238 · Model track record
Player comparison
| Matteo Berrettini | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Gauge rating | 6903 | 6966 |
| Tour rank | ATP #40 | ATP #8 |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 8-2 |
| Last 30 days | 3-2 | 7-2 |
| Current streak | 2 Wins | 2 Wins |
| Season record | 27-20 | 47-23 |
| UTR | 15.8 | 16.0 |
| Elo (52 weeks) | 1822 | 1982 |
| Best surface | Grass | Hard |
| Worst surface | Hard | Clay |
Head to head
Matteo Berrettini and Alex De Minaur haven't played each other in our records.
Recent form
Matteo Berrettini, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2026 | Flavio Cobolli | W | 5-2 |
| 26.10.2026 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 20.10.2026 | Kyrian Jacquet | L | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 09.10.2026 | Brandon Nakashima | L | 7-6, 7-5 |
| 07.10.2026 | Aleksandar Kovacevic | W | 6-7, 6-1, 6-4 |
| 03.10.2026 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L | 7-6, 6-1 |
| 01.10.2026 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W | 1-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| 03.09.2026 | Mariano Navone | L | 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6 |
| 31.08.2026 | Stan Wawrinka | W | 7-6, 7-6, 6-0 |
| 16.08.2026 | Jiri Lehecka | L | 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 |
Alex De Minaur, last 10
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | Learner Tien | W | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 26.10.2026 | Tomas Machac | W | 1-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 15.10.2026 | Alexander Zverev | L | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 13.10.2026 | Karen Khachanov | W | 6-3, 6-4 |
| 11.10.2026 | Rei Sakamoto | W | 7-6, 6-4 |
| 06.10.2026 | Novak Djokovic | L | 7-6, 0-1 |
| 05.10.2026 | Hubert Hurkacz | W | 6-4, 3-2 |
| 04.10.2026 | Andrey Rublev | W | 1-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 03.10.2026 | Quentin Halys | W | 3-6, 7-6, 7-5 |
| 01.10.2026 | Mariano Navone | W | 7-6, 6-2 |
Common opponents, last 12 months
| Opponent | Matteo Berrettini | Alex De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Mannarino | 1-0 W 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 |
2-0 W 6-3, 6-2, 6-2, W 6-4, 6-0 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1-0 W 1-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 |
| Alexander Bublik | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-4 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Alexander Zverev | 0-1 L 6-3, 6-4 |
1-1 L 6-4, 6-4, W 2-6, 7-6, 11-9 |
| Arthur Fils | 1-0 W 6-4, 7-5, 3-6, 6-3 |
1-1 L 6-3, 6-4, W 7-6, 6-2 |
| Brandon Nakashima | 0-1 L 7-6, 7-5 |
0-2 L 7-6, 6-4, L 7-5, 6-3 |
| Flavio Cobolli | 1-0 W 5-2 |
0-1 L 7-5, 7-6, 6-3 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 0-1 L 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
2-0 W 6-4, 3-2, W 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 |
| Learner Tien | 1-0 W 6-2, 6-2 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
| Mariano Navone | 1-2 L 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6, L 6-3, 6-7, 6-3, W 7-5, 6-3 |
1-0 W 7-6, 6-2 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 0-1 L 7-5, 5-2 |
0-1 L 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 |
| Patrick Kypson | 1-0 W 6-4, 6-7, 7-6 |
0-1 L 6-1, 6-7, 7-6 |
| Stan Wawrinka | 2-0 W 7-6, 7-6, 6-0, W 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 |
1-0 W 6-4, 6-2 |
| Valentin Vacherot | 0-1 L 7-6, 6-4 |
0-1 L 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
Earlier previews of this matchup
- 2026-11-01: ATP Wien (Austria), model gave Matteo Berrettini 23% at +184
- 2026-10-31: ATP Wien (Austria), model gave Matteo Berrettini 23% at +184
- 2026-10-30: ATP Wien (Austria), model gave Matteo Berrettini 23% at +184
Matteo Berrettini vs Alex De Minaur: quick answers
Who will win Matteo Berrettini vs Alex De Minaur?
Tennis Gauge's model favors Alex De Minaur, giving them a 77% chance to win against Matteo Berrettini (23%).
Have Matteo Berrettini and Alex De Minaur played before?
Not in Tennis Gauge's records. This would be their first recorded meeting.
Who is in better form, Matteo Berrettini or Alex De Minaur?
Matteo Berrettini is 5-5 in their last 10 matches (current streak: 2 Wins). Alex De Minaur is 8-2 (current streak: 2 Wins).
How does Tennis Gauge rate Matteo Berrettini and Alex De Minaur?
Matteo Berrettini is rated 6903 (ATP #40) and Alex De Minaur is rated 6966 (ATP #8). Ratings update after every match and weight recent results and opponent strength.
What are the odds for Matteo Berrettini vs Alex De Minaur?
Matteo Berrettini is priced at +184 and Alex De Minaur at -238, which implies a 35% and 70% chance to win. The model rates Alex De Minaur 6 points higher than the odds do (77% vs 70%), which Tennis Gauge counts as value.